China: 5% Growth, Weak Housing

China’s economy grew 5% in the first quarter, beating forecasts, but the recovery is still leaning on factories, exports and state spending more than housing or household demand. (stats.gov.cn) China’s National Bureau of Statistics said gross domestic product reached 33.42 trillion yuan in January through March, up 5.0% from a year earlier and 1.2% from the previous quarter. Industrial output rose 6.1% in the quarter, while retail sales grew 4.6% in March after a slower start to the year. (stats.gov.cn) Exports helped do much of the work. Electrical and mechanical products accounted for nearly 60% of China’s exports in the first quarter, and outbound shipments rose even as analysts said the Iran war had not yet fully hit trade flows or energy costs. (nbcnews.com) (bloomberg.com) Investment tells a split story. Fixed-asset investment rose 4.2% in the first quarter, but infrastructure investment climbed 5.8% while property investment fell 11.2%, extending the drag from the real-estate slump. (stats.gov.cn) (invezz.com) That housing weakness still matters because Chinese families have long stored much of their wealth in apartments, and falling prices have cut into confidence and spending. The New York Times reported that recent growth has depended heavily on government-led building projects rather than a broad rebound in private demand. (nytimes.com) There were signs of less pressure in March, but not a clean turn. Official data for 70 cities showed new-home prices rose month to month in 14 cities, up from 10 in February, while resale prices rose in 13 cities, up from 11. (english.scio.gov.cn) Price declines also eased across the country. Bloomberg, citing National Bureau of Statistics data, reported that new-home prices in 70 cities fell 0.21% in March from February after a 0.28% drop a month earlier, while resale-home prices posted their mildest monthly decline in a year. (bloomberg.com) Beijing set its 2026 growth target at about 5%, the lowest such goal in decades, and Thursday’s data keeps that target in reach for now. But the mix of growth — stronger exports and public works, weaker property and uneven consumption — shows why China’s recovery still looks narrow even after the headline beat. (cnbc.com) (stats.gov.cn)