Tariffs look structural

American executives are starting to plan for tariffs as a lasting cost, not a temporary Trump-era shock. (finance.yahoo.com) Fortune reported on April 14 that a PricewaterhouseCoopers survey found most chief executives expect U.S. import tariffs to outlast the current administration. Yahoo Finance, citing the same survey, said 86% of 633 U.S. executives now treat tariffs as a permanent part of business planning. (fortune.com, finance.yahoo.com) That view lines up with policy already on the books. The House of Commons Library said the United States applied a 10% baseline tariff to imports from the United Kingdom from April 5, 2025, and that a 10% tariff still applies to most other UK goods entering the U.S. (commonslibrary.parliament.uk) The baseline levy was not limited to Britain. Reuters reported U.S. customs began collecting a unilateral 10% tariff on imports from many countries on April 5, 2025, with higher country-specific rates scheduled for some larger trading partners days later. (cnbc.com) Companies are adjusting as if those costs will stay in contracts, budgets and sourcing maps. PricewaterhouseCoopers said in January that chief executive confidence in 2026 revenue growth had fallen to a five-year low amid tariff concerns, geopolitical risk and cyber threats. (pwc.com) The consumer side looks different. Sourcing Journal reported on April 15 that shoppers who paid higher prices because of tariff-driven duty increases are unlikely to benefit if importers later receive refunds. (wwd.com) CNBC reported the same pattern from its Chief Financial Officer Council survey on April 13. It said finance chiefs do not expect tariff refunds from the government to flow back to households, even after court rulings opened the door to potentially billions of dollars in repayments to importers. (cnbc.com) The legal picture is still moving. The House of Commons Library said a February 20, 2026 U.S. Supreme Court decision changed the legal basis for several tariffs and left it unclear whether the 10% tariff on many UK goods will be maintained or altered under a new framework. (commonslibrary.parliament.uk) Customs and Border Protection has already started building the refund machinery. Reporting last week said the agency’s web portal is set to process about three-fifths of the 53 million import entries that were subject to now-defunct duties in the first phase of refunds. (msn.com) That leaves buyers and suppliers planning around two facts at once: tariffs can survive political cycles, and any money returned later may stop with the importer instead of showing up as lower prices at the checkout. (finance.yahoo.com, wwd.com)