Chokepoints threaten a third of shipping
Analysts warn the Gulf conflict could spread from the Strait of Hormuz to the Bab al‑Mandeb, a shift that together would put more than a third of international commercial shipping at risk. (aljazeera.com) The escalation’s perimeter has already widened on land and sea, with Lebanon’s casualties rising and regional rhetoric intensifying even as some officials say diplomacy remains alive. ( )
The risk to global shipping no longer sits at one strait. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has already fallen sharply, and threats now extend to the Bab al-Mandeb at the Red Sea’s southern gate. (unctad.org) (aljazeera.com) The United States military said its blockade of Iranian ports took effect at 1400 Greenwich Mean Time on Monday, April 13, 2026, applying to ships leaving or seeking to dock at Iranian harbors. President Donald Trump said any Iranian boats that challenged the blockade would be destroyed. (thehindu.com) United Nations Trade and Development said the Strait of Hormuz carries about one quarter of global seaborne oil trade, plus major volumes of liquefied natural gas and fertilizers. Its data showed daily ship transits dropping from an average of 129 before February 28 to single digits in early March. (unctad.org) The Bab al-Mandeb is the other hinge in the route. It links the Gulf of Aden to the Red Sea, is 29 kilometers wide at its narrowest point, and channels Gulf exports toward the Suez Canal and Europe. (aljazeera.com) That is why analysts are focused on the pair together, not separately. The International Monetary Fund’s PortWatch lists the Strait of Hormuz, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, the Suez Canal and the Cape of Good Hope as the connected chokepoints now exposed to spillover. (portwatch.imf.org) The rerouting options are costly and limited. The International Energy Agency says about 20 million barrels a day moved through Hormuz in 2025 and only 3.5 million to 5.5 million barrels a day of pipeline capacity can bypass it. (iea.org) (iea.blob.core.windows.net) The economic shock is already visible in commodity markets. United Nations Trade and Development said Brent crude rose 27 percent and Dutch gas futures 74 percent between February 27 and March 9, pushing up freight, insurance and fertilizer costs. (unctad.org) Shipping risk is widening as the land war widens. United Nations officials said on April 14 that uncertainty around Hormuz was raising concerns over global trade and food security, while diplomacy between Israel and Lebanon was still being urged under Security Council Resolution 1701. (news.un.org) Lebanon’s toll has kept rising even after ceasefire talk elsewhere. The United Nations humanitarian office said widespread Israeli airstrikes on April 8 killed more than 300 people and injured 1,150 in Lebanon, prompting a national day of mourning on April 9. (unocha.org) For now, diplomats are still trying to keep the conflict from locking both maritime gates at once. But the map traders watch has already expanded from one narrow channel off Iran to a second one off Yemen. (cbsnews.com) (aljazeera.com)
