Fertilizer shock threatens food
UN agencies warn global food security is under immediate threat as shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz are driving fertilizer and freight costs sharply higher — risks that could push tens of millions into acute hunger if the war continues. Governments are scrambling: India held a Cabinet Committee on Security review to assess supply vulnerabilities, while the UAE is fast‑tracking investments in advanced food‑security infrastructure to blunt the shock. (downtoearth.org.in; news.fundsforngos.org; hindustantimes.com; zawya.com)
UNCTAD’s rapid assessment quantifies the exposure: transits through the Strait collapsed by more than 95% and roughly one‑third of global seaborne fertilizer trade—about 16 million tonnes a year—normally moves via Hormuz. (unctad.org) FAO Chief Economist Máximo Torero called the disruption “one of the most severe shocks to global commodity flows in recent years,” linking the crisis directly to impending production shortfalls for key crops. (fao.org) The World Food Programme warns that, if the conflict persists through June and oil stays above $100/barrel, almost 45 million more people could be pushed into acute hunger this year. (wfp.org) Wholesale fertilizer spot prices have already spiked: DTN reported urea jumping about 35% month‑on‑month to an average near $826/ton, while UAN and anhydrous nitrogen products rose 20–35% in recent weeks. (dtnpf.com) Regional retail moves tracked by CRU show US Gulf barge urea trading rose into the $520–$645/short‑ton range from prior-week levels around $475, tightening farm input availability ahead of Northern Hemisphere planting. (farmpolicynews.illinois.edu) Marine war‑risk underwriters cancelled Gulf coverage in early March—leaving roughly 150 vessels stranded—and the US DFC has created a $20 billion maritime reinsurance facility with Chubb as lead underwriter to restore eligible shipping. (journalrecord.com) India’s Cabinet Committee on Security, chaired by Prime Minister Narendra Modi in its second special meeting, was briefed by Cabinet Secretary T V Somanathan and directed measures to diversify LPG/LNG and fertilizer sourcing, cut duties and secure power supplies. (indianexpress.com) Abdulla bin Touq Al Marri, UAE minister of economy, inspected Grand Mills and reiterated the UAE’s advanced food‑security infrastructure and strategic reserves (reported at about four to six months’ cover), while authorities stepped up market monitoring. (zawya.com) The UN has set up a dedicated task force to design mechanisms—modeled on the Black Sea Grain Initiative—to keep essential trade, including fertilizer shipments, moving through or around Hormuz to avert wider humanitarian fallout. (usnews.com)
