Vietnam's Supply Chains Show Resilience
Vietnam's food supply chains have largely recovered from the major storms and floods of 2025. Food prices in Hanoi remained stable during the recent Tet holiday, indicating a return to normalcy. The recovery in storm-hit central regions suggests Vietnam will maintain its capacity to meet its rice export commitments.
- Vietnam is strategically shifting its rice export policy to focus on quality over quantity, planning to reduce exports to approximately seven million tonnes in 2026, down from eight million the previous year. This initiative, part of "Decision 583," aims to target higher-end market segments and increase value per tonne, with a long-term goal of reducing exports to four million tonnes by 2030. - Global rice trade is projected to reach a record 62.8 million tons in 2026, with Africa's increasing demand being a significant market driver. While global consumption is also hitting record highs, a supply glut is creating a challenging environment for exporters, influencing Vietnam's pivot to premium products. - Competitor dynamics are shifting as India, the world's largest rice exporter, lifted its export restrictions in late 2024 and early 2025, a move that eased global prices. This policy change from India directly impacts global supply and pricing, creating a more competitive landscape for Thai exporters. - For exporters targeting Europe, compliance with EU regulations is critical. All organic rice imports now require an electronic certificate of inspection (e-COI) submitted through the TRACES system under Regulation (EU) 2018/848. - The Asia-Pacific rice market is forecast to grow from USD 376 billion in 2025 to USD 391.12 billion in 2026, with rising incomes and urbanization driving demand for premium, organic, and specialty varieties like Jasmine. - Currency fluctuations will be a key factor; some forecasts for the Thai Baht to Euro (THB/EUR) exchange rate suggest a range between €0.02663 and €0.02872 in 2026. Other analyses predict a softer rate, potentially reaching 0.025300 by late 2026. - Traceability and sustainability are becoming key differentiators for gaining access to high-value markets. Exporters are increasingly required to provide digital traceability to meet buyer and regulatory demands for transparency, especially in European markets.
