Maple Leafs win No. 1 pick

The NHL draft lottery is usually a side show for teams already thinking years ahead. This one landed like a franchise reset. Toronto won the No. 1 pick on Tuesday, May 5, despite entering with only the fifth-best odds, and now the Maple Leafs control the first big decision of the 2026 offseason. The reason this feels so huge is simple — teams do not stumble into top picks often, and Toronto almost never gets a chance like this. ### How big was the jump? Pretty big. Toronto had an 8.5% chance to win the lottery and still jumped to first overall. San Jose won the second drawing and moved into the No. 2 slot, Vancouver ended up at No. 3, and Chicago got pushed down to No. 4. That reshuffle is the whole story — one lucky night changed four teams’ plans at once. ### Why does this matter so much for Toronto? Because the Leafs are not supposed to live in this part of the standings. Their other two No. 1 picks came in 1985, when they took Wendel Clark, and 2016, when they took Auston Matthews. Those are the kinds of picks that deliver a masterpiece player at exactly the moment the franchise needs a new long-view plan. ### Who are they really choosing between? The headline names are Gavin McKenna and Ivar Stenberg. McKenna is ranked by NHL Central Scouting as the top North American skater, while Stenberg is the top European skater. That does not lock in the decision, but it frames the class headliners. ### Why is McKenna the name everyone knows? Because he looks like the cleanest “build around this guy” bet. The broad consensus around the draft chatter is that McKenna projects as the top pick, and that is why Toronto will have weeks to test whether they agree with the public board. ### What does Chicago lose here? Access, basically. If McKenna and Stenberg go in some order at 1 and 2, the Blackhawks are suddenly shopping from a different shelf at No. 4. Chicago had the second-worst record and still slid two spots, which is about the ugliest version of lottery night for a rebuilding team. ### When does the choice become real? Soon. The 2026 NHL Draft is set for KeyBank Center in Buffalo, with Round 1 on June 26 and Rounds 2 through 7 on June 27. So Toronto is not sitting on this for months. The Leafs are on the clock now, even if the formal pick comes in late June. ### Is there any catch to reading too much into this? Yes — draft lotteries create certainty about order, not certainty about outcomes. A No. 1 pick can change a franchise, but only if the scouting is right — not one bounce-filled night. ### Bottom line? Toronto did not just win a lottery. The Leafs bought themselves a new timeline. Now the pressure shifts from ping-pong balls to judgment — and that part is much harder.