Chip exports stall

The United States says some Nvidia and Advanced Micro Devices artificial-intelligence chips can go to China again, but export approvals are piling up inside the agency that must sign them. (bis.gov, gao.gov) On January 13, 2026, the Bureau of Industry and Security said it would review licenses for Nvidia H200, Advanced Micro Devices MI325X, and similar chips on a case-by-case basis. The rule followed President Donald Trump’s December 8, 2025 announcement reopening a narrow path for approved sales to China. (bis.gov, bis.gov) Those licenses are handled by the Bureau of Industry and Security, a Commerce Department office that reviews “dual-use” exports, including computer chips with civilian and military uses. The Government Accountability Office said in June 2025 that the bureau’s licensing process also depends on reviews by the Defense, Energy, and State departments. (gao.gov) The staffing problem predates this year’s chip backlog. The Government Accountability Office said the bureau had no long-term workforce plan, last ran a bureau-wide workforce planning effort in 2016, and was still assessing staffing needs one budget cycle at a time. (gao.gov) The same report said Bureau of Industry and Security funding roughly doubled from fiscal 2013 through fiscal 2024, while funded positions rose from 403 to 585. But much of the added money went to Russia-related export enforcement after 2022 and to a new office focused on information and communications technology supply chains. (gao.gov) That leaves chipmakers and Chinese buyers waiting even after Washington changed the rulebook. The January rule took effect immediately, but each shipment still has to clear conditions on customer screening, third-party testing in the United States, and proof that sales will not cut supply for United States customers. (bis.gov, bis.gov) For Nvidia, China remains a strategic market even after years of tighter controls. In its annual report filed on February 26, 2026, Nvidia said it was “effectively foreclosed” from competing in China’s data-center compute market at the end of fiscal 2026, and that the loss had helped rivals build larger software and customer ecosystems. (sec.gov) Advanced Micro Devices is also still planning around China demand. In its February 3, 2026 earnings release, the company said first-quarter 2026 revenue guidance included about $100 million of Instinct MI308 sales to China. (amd.com) The licensing bottleneck lands in the middle of a broader export-control system that has grown more complicated, not simpler. The Government Accountability Office said reviewing agencies had also complained that the Bureau of Industry and Security did not always give them ready access to all relevant licensing information and had sometimes changed license conditions without consultation. (gao.gov) So the immediate question is no longer whether Washington will allow some advanced chips into China. It is whether the office that writes the approvals can process them fast enough for suppliers and customers to plan shipments at all. (bis.gov, gao.gov)