Iran War Spending Sparks US Debt Fears

UBS is warning that the Trump administration's military response to Iran could destabilize U.S. government debt. With deficits already high, surging spending on weapons and expanded military operations is expected to increase bond market volatility and compound macroeconomic risks.

The U.S. national debt stood at $38.43 trillion as of January 7, 2026, marking a $2.25 trillion increase from the previous year. This debt has been accumulating at an average rate of $8.03 billion per day. In the first three months of the 2026 fiscal year alone, the U.S. government borrowed $602 billion, with projections for the annual deficit reaching nearly $1.9 trillion. A significant driver of this increasing deficit is the rising cost of interest payments on the existing national debt. Historically, U.S. involvement in military conflicts has led to dramatic increases in the national debt. The wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, for example, were financed through historic levels of debt as, unlike previous wars, they were accompanied by tax cuts rather than increases. The cost of U.S. wars from 2001 to 2022 amounted to an estimated $8 trillion. Recent military operations related to Iran and its proxies are already adding to the financial burden. Since October 2023, the U.S. has spent nearly $34 billion on these conflicts. The current American military deployment against Iran is estimated to cost around $30 million per day. This new spending comes at a time of existing bond market volatility. An increase in government borrowing to fund a war could further elevate this volatility. A conflict with Iran also risks a spike in oil prices, with some analysts predicting prices could exceed $100 a barrel. Such a surge would likely impact inflation and the broader economy, further complicating the nation's financial outlook.

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