U.S. stocks rebound on earnings bets

U.S. stocks climbed back toward record highs in April even as fighting tied to Iran kept oil elevated and investors on edge. (jpmorgan.com) (fidelity.com) The rebound has tracked a turn in earnings data. FactSet said on April 24 that 28% of S&P 500 companies had reported first-quarter results, and 84% beat earnings-per-share estimates. (insight.factset.com) Those companies beat by 12.3% in aggregate, and the blended earnings growth rate for the quarter rose to 15.1% from 13.0% a week earlier. Industrials, information technology, health care and materials drove much of that increase. (insight.factset.com) Wall Street had been bracing for a deeper selloff when the Middle East conflict pushed crude toward $100 a barrel and shook rate-cut hopes. Fidelity said the S&P 500’s maximum drawdown stayed below 10% before the benchmark recovered. (fidelity.com) By April 14, Fidelity said the S&P 500 was up nearly 2% for 2026 and sat about 1% below its January 27 all-time high. J.P. Morgan said a full recovery from the conflict-era drawdown took 11 trading sessions. (fidelity.com) (jpmorgan.com) The earnings cushion has shown up in forward estimates too. Fidelity said the forward earnings estimate for the S&P 500 had been growing at a 17% annual rate, with profit margins around 15% in early April. (fidelity.com) MarketWatch reported on April 12 that full-year 2026 earnings estimates were still rising even after the March selloff, with technology, materials and energy among the sectors seeing meaningful increases. (morningstar.com) That helps explain why investors have looked past the absence of a final Iran resolution. J.P. Morgan said the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 had gained 9% and 11% month to date, while the Nasdaq 100 logged a 13-day winning streak. (jpmorgan.com) The calm is not guaranteed to last. A challenge to the Trump administration’s Section 122 tariff is pending at the U.S. Court of International Trade after arguments on April 10, with a ruling expected within four to eight weeks. (freightfigures.com) Trade policy has another clock attached to it. Legal and trade trackers say the Section 122 import surcharge imposed on February 24 expires by statute on July 24 unless Congress acts, while new Section 301 tariff cases could land before then. (dfdl.com) (icontainers.com) For now, the market’s message is that earnings have been strong enough to outweigh war headlines. The next test is whether profits keep beating estimates as oil, rates and tariff rules stay unsettled. (insight.factset.com) (fidelity.com)