Refinery attacks cut nearly 9% capacity

Reuters reported on May 13 that refinery attacks tied to the wars in Iran and Ukraine had knocked out nearly 9% of global oil refining capacity in recent months, a hit that has tightened fuel markets and stretched recovery timelines. Reuters said the outages amounted to roughly 4.94 million barrels per day of refining capacity, based on industry monitor IIR data and its own calculations. The damage comes on top of earlier crude supply disruptions linked to fighting around the Gulf and repeated Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian energy infrastructure. Brent crude hit $126 a barrel in April, a four-year high, as product markets tightened and buyers drew on inventories. ### How large is the refining outage? Reuters said nearly 9% of global refining capacity had been removed in recent months, using a global liquid fuels demand benchmark of about 104 million barrels a day and outage estimates from IIR. The biggest share came from the Iran war, which had shut as much as 3.52 million barrels per day of refining capacity as of May 7, according to IIR. An additional 1.42 million barrels per day was linked to the Russia-Ukraine war, Reuters said. (money.usnews.com) Reuters also calculated that Ukrainian drone attacks forced about 700,000 barrels per day of Russian crude processing capacity offline between January and May across 16 sites. That figure sits inside the broader 1.42 million barrels per day tied to the Ukraine war and reflects direct refinery losses rather than wider supply-chain effects. (money.usnews.com) ### Which refineries were hit in the Gulf? Saudi Arabia’s 550,000 barrel-per-day Ras Tanura refinery was among the facilities affected, Reuters reported. Amin Nasser, Saudi Aramco’s chief executive, said on Monday that Ras Tanura had restarted, though some units were still undergoing turnaround work. (money.usnews.com) Kuwait’s Mina Al-Ahmadi and Mina Abdullah refineries were also hit by drones, Reuters said. Reuters added that both plants, along with the 615,000 barrel-per-day Al-Zour refinery, Kuwait’s largest, had lowered processing rates. The IEA said in its March 2026 Oil Market Report that more than 3 million barrels per day of refining capacity in the region had already shut because of attacks and a lack of viable export outlets. (money.usnews.com) The agency said Gulf producers exported 3.3 million barrels per day of refined products and 1.5 million barrels per day of LPG in 2025, underscoring how regional outages can move global product balances. ### Why did product markets tighten faster than crude markets? Patrick Pouyanne, chief executive of TotalEnergies, said on April 29 that about 500 million barrels of oil had already been drawn from inventories to offset the shock. He said that figure could rise to 1 billion barrels because restarting damaged facilities and delivering fuel to Asia would take time. (iea.org) Reuters said some refined products rose faster than crude, with jet fuel reaching a record high in March. Separate Reuters reporting showed major U.S. passenger airlines spent just over $5 billion on jet fuel in March, up $1.8 billion, or 56%, from February, according to the U.S. Transportation Department. (money.usnews.com) Ole Hansen, an analyst at Saxo Bank, told Reuters that damage to refineries would keep refined product markets tight. Pouyanne said prices were likely to remain high even if the war ended quickly. Both comments pointed to refining bottlenecks, not only crude supply, as a driver of the fuel squeeze. (money.usnews.com) ### Why could recovery take months after fighting stops? The IEA said on March 12 that the Middle East war was creating the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market, with flows through the Strait of Hormuz falling from around 20 million barrels per day before the war to a trickle. The agency said runs outside the Gulf would also be increasingly limited by feedstock availability. (money.usnews.com) Reuters said refinery damage, crude shortages and disrupted tanker traffic together meant the system would not snap back as soon as hostilities eased. Restarts depend on repairs, crude availability, shipping access and the ability to move products to end markets. (iea.org) Saudi Aramco’s update that Ras Tanura has restarted, though not fully, is one of the clearest near-term markers for recovery. The next checkpoints are likely to come in the IEA’s May 2026 Oil Market Report, further company statements from Aramco and Kuwait operators, and any new disclosures on Russian refinery restart timelines. (money.usnews.com)