Heat pumps beat ACs in September

The crossover happened in September 2025: U.S. shipments of air-source heat pumps narrowly exceeded shipments of central air conditioners for the first time in the monthly data tracked by the Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute, or AHRI. The Cool Down, in a July 8 story, cited Canary Media’s reporting on the shift and said the result reflected a market that has been tightening for years. AHRI’s shipment reports cover equipment shipped by manufacturers to customers in all U.S. states and the District of Columbia, rather than retail purchases at the register. That distinction matters, but the direction is clear: heat pumps are no longer just competing with gas furnaces; they are now running even with conventional ACs. ### What exactly beat what in September? AHRI tracks U.S. manufacturer shipments of central air conditioners and air-source heat pumps in the same monthly data series. In September 2025, according to reporting based on that AHRI data, heat pumps moved ahead of standard ACs by a small margin, marking the first monthly crossover on record. Homepros, citing a Building Decarbonization Coalition report built on AHRI figures, said the September 2025 crossover continued through the end of that year. (thecooldown.com) Canary Media reported last week that the two products were “basically tied” across 2025 as a whole, with heat pumps pulling ahead in September. The Cool Down separately summarized the same trend and said 2025 heat-pump sales were up 1% while air-conditioner sales were down 8% year over year. ### Why are heat pumps catching up to ACs now? (homepros.news) A decade ago, conventional AC systems sold at roughly twice the rate of heat pumps, according to Canary Media. By 2024, that gap had narrowed sharply, and by April 2025 air conditioners led heat pumps by only 17%, ACHR News reported, citing AHRI shipment data and comments from David Rames, a senior product manager at Midea America Corp. (canarymedia.com) Federal, state and local policy helped push the market in that direction, according to Canary Media’s earlier reporting on heat-pump adoption. The outlet said policies enacted over the previous four years lowered upfront costs and supported broader adoption, while The Cool Down said federal incentives remained available through the end of 2025 even after repeal. (canarymedia.com) RMI, a nonprofit that maintains a public heat-pump market tracker using AHRI data, said heat pumps also benefit from their dual role: they provide both heating and cooling. RMI said manufacturers shipped 12% more heat pumps than gas furnaces in 2025, extending a lead heat pumps have held over furnaces since 2021. ### Does this mean homeowners are buying more efficient systems? (canarymedia.com) Heat pumps can both cool a home and provide heat, which is why they are increasingly compared with a furnace-plus-AC combination rather than with air conditioners alone. The Cool Down, citing Canary Media, said heat pumps can perform two to four times as efficiently as fossil-fueled heating systems. ACHR News, citing analysis from energy data startup 257, put the figure at roughly three to four times more efficient than traditional fuel-based heating. (rmi.org) Costs still vary by region. Scott Rosenberg, co-founder and chief executive of 257, told ACHR News that heat-pump economics are “certainly regionally specific,” while The Cool Down said electricity-versus-gas price spreads remain a key factor for households deciding whether the switch will save money. (thecooldown.com) ### Are these shipment numbers the same as consumer sales? AHRI describes its figures as U.S. manufacturer shipments, not installed systems or final consumer transactions. The trade group says it generally releases the monthly report on the second Friday of each month for shipments made two months earlier. That makes the series a closely watched measure of market direction, but not a direct count of what homeowners installed in a given week. (achrnews.com) The Building Decarbonization Coalition said the September 2025 crossover might not hold through peak summer buying, when conventional air-conditioner demand is strongest. Even so, the group said that if the trajectory continues, annual heat-pump sales could surpass annual air-conditioner sales within the next few years. (ahrinet.org) ### Where can readers track what happens next? AHRI publishes its monthly shipment reports on its statistics page, with new releases typically posted on the second Friday of each month. RMI said its own tracker is updated every three months and, as of its latest public update, covered the period from April 2025 through March 2026. Those two sources will show whether the September 2025 crossover was a one-month anomaly or the start of a broader change in the U.S. (homepros.news) HVAC market. (ahrinet.org)