AAA forecasts 45 million travelers

Memorial Day travel is shaping up to be huge this year. AAA put out its 2026 forecast on May 11, and the headline number is simple: 45 million Americans are expected to travel at least 50 miles from home between Thursday, May 21, and Monday, May 25. That would edge past last year and set a new Memorial Day weekend record. (newsroom.aaa.com) The reason this matters is pretty practical. More people on the move means fuller roads, busier airports, tighter rental-car supply, and more competition for the same beach towns, parks, cruises, and city breaks. (newsroom.aaa.com) And this year’s mix leans heavily toward driving. ### Why is this mostly a road-trip story? Because almost all of the growth is happening in cars. AAA expects 39.1 million people to drive over the five-day holiday window, which is 87% of all Memorial Day travelers in the forecast. Air travel is much smaller at 3.66 million, and another 2.2 million are expected to go by bus, train, or cruise. (newsroom.aaa.com) ### So why are people still driving if gas is up? Basically, people are still choosing the cheaper, more flexible option even when fuel hurts. AAA says pump prices are higher than they were last Memorial Day, and at national levels they’re the highest since summer 2022. But driving still lets families split costs, pack more stuff, and take shorter trips without dealing with airfare or airport hassles. (newsroom.aaa.com) ### What’s happening with flights? Flights are busier too, just not as dominant. AAA says 3.66 million domestic travelers are expected to fly, and average round-trip domestic tickets were 6% cheaper than last year for people who booked early, at about $800. The catch is that those lower fares mostly reflect earlier bookings made before higher jet-fuel costs started feeding into prices. (newsroom.aaa.com) ### Where is the squeeze likely to show up first? Rental cars and top leisure destinations. Hertz told AAA that Thursday and Friday are expected to be the busiest pickup days, and the hottest rental markets include Orlando, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Denver, and Boston. AAA’s booking data also points to heavy demand for Orlando, Seattle, New York City, Las Vegas, and Miami on the domestic side. (newsroom.aaa.com) ### When will traffic be worst? The ugly windows are pretty predictable. INRIX expects the heaviest congestion on Thursday and Friday afternoons, especially from roughly 3 p.m. to 6 p.m., with another crunch on Monday afternoon as people head home. The better play is early morning, late evening, or Sunday, which looks lighter unless crashes or weather change the picture. (newsroom.aaa.com) ### Is there a hidden risk here besides traffic? Yes — breakdowns. AAA says it handled more than 350,000 roadside calls over last Memorial Day weekend for dead batteries, flat tires, and empty tanks. When travel volume jumps, small car problems turn into long delays fast. (newsroom.aaa.com) ### Why does this forecast matter beyond one weekend? Memorial Day is the first real stress test of the summer travel season. If 45 million people still go despite pricier gas, that tells you leisure demand is holding up better than a lot of people expected. It also means the summer crowding problem probably won’t ease much. (nbcwashington.com) ### Bottom line This forecast is really a signal about consumer behavior. Americans are still taking the trip — but they’re doing it in cars, booking early when they can, and concentrating into the same high-demand windows and destinations. If you wait, you probably won’t lose the chance to travel. But you may lose the cheap fare, the easy rental, and the uncrowded version of the trip. (newsroom.aaa.com)