Shipping chokepoints deepen
The Strait of Hormuz is reported largely closed and Bab al‑Mandeb is at risk, disrupting global shipping lanes and feeding an oil shock that’s pushing costs across manufacturing, food, and logistics. Analysts warn the energy‑led inflation shock could have persistent, economy‑wide effects. (apnews.com) (nbcnews.com)
Vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz have collapsed by roughly 92%, and Kpler estimates about 984 tankers — roughly 22% of the global tanker fleet by count — are effectively stranded in the broader Middle East region. (kpler.com)) Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) spot rates on the Middle East‑to‑China route surged above $420,000 per day, pushing the Baltic VLCC global average to about $280,941/day — levels not seen since at least 2008. (lloydslist.com)) War‑risk insurance for Red Sea and Bab al‑Mandeb transits has re‑rated sharply, with market quotes swinging from typical 0.2–0.4% of hull value to roughly 1% of a vessel’s value for single transits after recent attacks. (shipuniverse.com)) Major liners including Maersk, Hapag‑Lloyd and CMA CGM have rerouted services around the Cape of Good Hope, a shift analysts say absorbs roughly 2.5 million TEU of capacity and can add about 19 transit days while increasing weekly route costs by over $2 billion. (maritimenews.com)) The IEA reported Brent futures traded within a whisker of $120/barrel at one point and were around $92/barrel in its March oil‑market update, with Brent up roughly $20/barrel for the month. (iea.org)) Research houses and banks have raised 2026 oil assumptions — Bernstein lifted its Brent base case from $65 to $80/barrel — while scenario analyses circulated on Wall Street and in Bloomberg visualizations highlight extreme outcomes as high as $200/barrel if chokepoints remain closed. (economymiddleeast.com)) Liner‑level congestion is concrete: Lloyd’s List reports about 170 containerships totalling roughly 450,000 TEU remain inside the strait facing exit restrictions, tightening immediate container availability on Asia‑to‑Europe and Asia‑to‑US corridors. (lloydslist.com))
