Florida growth is cooling
UCF economists expect Florida's economy to keep growing but at a slower pace, and migration gains into the state are weakening as housing and insurance costs rise — a regional squeeze that affects local spending and tourism patterns. For creators focusing on inland Florida, that shift makes practical, budget‑aware local content more commercially relevant. (wftv.com) (wftv.com)
Florida is still growing, but the easy-growth phase is fading. The University of Central Florida’s new forecast says Florida real gross state product grew 3.2% in 2025, is expected to slow to 2.9% in 2026, then 2.1% in 2027 and 2.0% in 2028 before a small rebound to 2.4% in 2029. (business.ucf.edu) That is not a recession forecast. It is a slower-engine forecast, where the car is still moving forward but not with the same pull Florida had during the pandemic-era boom. (wftv.com) One reason is that fewer people are arriving from other states than a few years ago. Florida’s net domestic migration fell to 64,017 in 2024, down from 185,067 in 2023 and 314,467 in 2022, according to Census-based reporting. (realtor.com) The old Florida formula was simple: more newcomers meant more home sales, more furniture purchases, more restaurant tabs, and more local tax collections. When that stream narrows, the pressure shows up first in places that depend on steady turnover and impulse spending. (census.gov) Housing costs are a big part of the slowdown. Realtor.com reported that just 38.5% of viewers of Florida home listings came from out of state in February 2025, down from 45.1% in February 2024 and 50.4% in February 2023. (realtor.com) Insurance is the other bill people cannot ignore. Florida homeowners pay the highest premiums in the country, and USA Today reported this week that average home insurance costs in the state run about 181% above the national average. (usatoday.com) That squeeze changes behavior before it changes headlines. Families facing higher rent, mortgage, auto insurance, and property insurance costs usually do not cancel every trip or outing, but they trade a weekend hotel stay for a day trip, or a big-ticket purchase for a discount-store run. (wftv.com) Florida tourism is still huge, which is why this is a cooling story and not a collapse story. VISIT FLORIDA says the state welcomed a record 143.3 million visitors in 2025, and 131.1 million of them were domestic travelers, which means the state still has a giant base of drive-market visitors. (visitflorida.org) But a tourism record does not erase the affordability shift inside the state. If more visitors are driving instead of flying, and more residents are hunting for cheaper outings closer to home, inland places from Polk County to Marion County become less of a spillover story and more of the main budget story. (visitflorida.org) The migration map is shifting that way already. Census-based county data cited by BeautifyData shows Pasco County, Polk County, and Marion County posted some of Florida’s biggest 2024 net domestic migration gains, which suggests growth is still moving inland even as the statewide surge cools. (beautifydata.com) So the new Florida story is not “people stopped coming.” It is that the state is getting more price-sensitive, more selective, and less forgiving, with growth that now depends less on endless arrivals and more on whether households can still afford to spend after paying for shelter and insurance. (business.ucf.edu)
