Oil ticks higher this week

U.S. oil prices climbed this week as traders weighed tighter supply against fragile diplomacy around the Strait of Hormuz. (iea.org) (finance.yahoo.com) West Texas Intermediate, the main U.S. benchmark, averaged $91 a barrel in March after jumping $26.48 from February, according to the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. On April 16, Reuters reported front-month WTI at $90.59 in early trading as markets reacted to reports that Iran could allow ships to pass on the Omani side of the strait if talks advanced. (publications.opec.org) (finance.yahoo.com) The International Energy Agency said April 14 that global oil supply fell by 10.1 million barrels a day to 97 million barrels a day in March. It tied the drop to attacks on energy infrastructure in the Middle East and restrictions on tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. (iea.org) That waterway carries about 20% of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas flows, Reuters reported on April 16. The same report said investors were trying to price both ongoing disruption and the chance that U.S.-Iran talks could reopen shipping lanes. (finance.yahoo.com) U.S. inventory data added another supply signal. The Energy Information Administration said April 15 that crude stocks for the week ended April 10 fell by 913,000 barrels to 463.8 million, while Reuters said analysts had expected a 154,000-barrel increase. (eia.gov) (finance.yahoo.com) The price spike has landed in a market already running on thin buffers. The International Energy Agency said global observed oil inventories fell by 85 million barrels in March, with stocks outside the Middle East Gulf down 205 million barrels as Hormuz flows were choked off. (iea.org) Oil forecasters are split on what comes next. The International Energy Agency said 2026 oil demand is now expected to contract by 80,000 barrels a day because higher prices and scarcity are cutting fuel use, while OPEC kept its 2026 demand growth forecast at 1.4 million barrels a day. (iea.org) (publications.opec.org) That divide helps explain why natural gas and base metals moved less sharply than crude. Reuters described April 16 trading as a tug-of-war between disruption fears and hopes for de-escalation, while metals analysts this week pointed to firmer nickel and copper expectations but no across-the-board supply collapse. (finance.yahoo.com) (mining.com) (goldmansachs.com) For now, oil is still trading on the next headline out of the Gulf. Reuters quoted Fujitomi Securities analyst Toshitaka Tazawa saying WTI could keep swinging between $80 and $100 until a peace deal is reached and navigation through the strait is restored. (finance.yahoo.com)