2026 Could Be Record VC Year
Lobster Capital reports that 26% of its portfolio received markups in 2025, with one company hitting 4.5x returns in just nine months after scaling to $10M ARR in 14 months. 2026 is poised to be a "record liquidity year" with anticipated IPOs from SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic, Stripe, and Databricks potentially unlocking ~$1 trillion in capital. YC companies are now reaching Series A in nine months, down from 18-24 months previously.
- The IPO market showed resilience in 2025, raising $44 billion in proceeds, with technology, industrials, and energy leading the sectors. Projections for 2026 estimate IPO proceeds could reach between $55 billion and $65 billion, and potentially set a new record of over $142 billion if a few major companies go public. - Stripe's valuation reached $159 billion in a February 2026 tender offer, a significant increase from its $106.7 billion valuation in September 2025 and its $95 billion valuation in March 2021. - SpaceX is targeting a valuation of approximately $1.5 trillion for a potential 2026 IPO, a substantial jump from its $800 billion valuation in a late 2025 private tender offer. - Databricks reached a valuation of $134 billion in its Series L funding round in December 2025 and is considered a strong candidate for an IPO in mid-to-late 2026. - In February 2026, AI company Anthropic raised $30 billion, boosting its valuation to $380 billion. The company also initiated a secondary share sale for employees at a valuation of around $350 billion. - OpenAI is reportedly in discussions for a new funding round that could value the company at over $850 billion. This follows reports of a potential $100 billion funding round at a $730 billion valuation. - The secondary market for venture capital is expanding, providing an alternative route for liquidity. It was projected to exceed $120 billion globally in 2025 as the demand for liquidity from shareholders and LPs in venture funds grows. - Y Combinator's recent batches have shown a strong focus on Artificial Intelligence, with over 50% of the Spring 2025 cohort building AI and agentic solutions, attracting significant investor interest.
