Israel seizes nearly 60% of Gaza

Gaza is back at the center of the regional picture, even with a ceasefire technically still in place. The immediate news is that Israeli forces now control about 59% of the strip, up from roughly half when the truce began, while military planners have reportedly finished preparations for a renewed offensive awaiting political approval. At the same time, the broader Middle East is getting more combustible — the U.S. and Iran are clashing again in and around the Strait of Hormuz, even as Washington says that separate ceasefire still holds. ### What changed in Gaza? The big change is territorial control. Israeli Army Radio, cited in reporting on May 4 and May 5, said Israeli forces have expanded the so-called Yellow Line and now hold about 59% of Gaza, with troops stationed across the south, north, and east. The same reporting says operational plans for restarting the war are complete, and the final call now sits with Israel’s political leadership. ### Why does 59% matter so much? Because that number is not just about maps. It means Gaza’s civilians are being compressed into roughly 40% of the enclave while Israeli forces keep widening the buffer and control zones. Under the ceasefire’s later phases, Israel was supposed to move toward a gradual withdrawal from all of Gaza. Instead, the controlled area has grown. That tells you the military reality is moving in the opposite direction from the diplomatic one. ### What are Israeli forces trying to do there? The military logic is basically this: hold ground, cut movement, and go after the underground network that lets Hamas survive pressure. The reporting around the latest buildup points to tunnel hunting, smuggling-route disruption, and targeting Hamas commanders as the core tasks. That matters especially in the Rafah and Egypt-border area, where tunnel routes have long been treated by Israel as a key way weapons and fighters can regenerate. ### So is the ceasefire over or not? Formally, no. Functionally, it looks badly eroded. In Gaza, the truce has not produced the kind of rollback or aid access that later phases were supposed to bring. In the Gulf, Pete Hegseth said on May 5 that the U.S.-Iran ceasefire is “not over” even after new attacks in the Strait of Hormuz. Dan Caine said Iran had fired at commercial shipping but still below the threshold for major combat restarting. ### Why does Hormuz matter to Gaza? Because these are not separate boxes anymore. The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s key oil chokepoints, and any U.S.-Iran flare-up changes the pressure on Israel, Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Arab states trying to contain spillover. If shipping disruptions deepen, energy markets tighten, diplomacy gets harder, and every actor has more reason to treat local ceasefires as temporary pauses instead of real settlements. ### What about aid and civilians? This is where the gap between paper and reality is starkest. The Gaza ceasefire framework called for up to 600 aid trucks a day, but Gaza authorities say the actual average has been just over 200. So even without a formal declaration that the war has restarted, the humanitarian squeeze has continued. Territorial expansion plus restricted aid is a formula for deeper civilian distress fast. ### What happens next? The next step is political, not military. Israeli commanders appear to be saying they are ready now and want authorization. If that comes, the current map could turn into the staging ground for a broader new offensive. If it does not, Gaza stays in the stranger place it is in now — not fully at war, not meaningfully at peace, and increasingly carved up anyway. ### Bottom line The real story is that control on the ground is expanding faster than diplomacy can contain it. A ceasefire can survive in statements for a while. But when territory changes hands, civilians are boxed in, and the region’s main shipping lane is under fire, the pause starts to look very thin.