Hochul Loses Ground With NYC Voters, Poll

Kathy Hochul has a weird new problem. New York City voters are cooling on her, but not enough to put her in immediate danger. The latest Siena University poll, released May 5, shows her approval and favorability both dropping statewide, with the biggest one-month slippage concentrated among independents, men, and New York City voters. But at the same time, she actually widened her lead over Republican Bruce Blakeman. (sri.siena.edu) ### What actually moved? The topline is simple. Hochul’s statewide favorability fell to 41-46% from 45-42% in March. Her job approval fell to 48-44% from 52-40%. Siena called both numbers her weakest in about a year. The poll was conducted April 27-30 among 806 registered New York voters. (sri.siena.edu)e Siena singled the city out. The pollster said Hochul’s ratings fell most over the last month with independents, men, and New York City voters. That does not mean she is losing the city outright. Siena said she remains in positive territory there on both favorability and approval. But the di(sri.siena.edu)e race. (sri.siena.edu) ### How soft is her city standing now? March gives a good baseline. In Siena’s March poll, Hochul was 53-31% favorable in New York City. That is still solid, but it is not the kind of overwhelming margin that lets a Democrat ignore erosion. The new May release does not publish the exact updated city split in the summary text surfaced here, onl(sri.siena.edu)ign is the trend, not a collapse. (sri.siena.edu) ### So why is she still ahead? Because the Republican side is still weak and underdefined. Siena found Hochul leading Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman 49-33%, up from 47-34% in March. And 64% of voters said they had never heard of him or did not know enough to rate him. That is a huge number. It means a lot of the race is still hypothetical. Voters may be less happy with Hochul, but they have not coalesced around the alternative. (sri.siena.edu) ### Is this about ideology or just mood? Mostly mood for now. The same Siena poll found broad unease about the state’s direction and affordability. Only 37% in March said New York was on the right track, while 48% said it was on the wrong track. In the May release, Siena also highlighted voter frustration around the late state budget and the g(sri.siena.edu)That is the classic incumbent squeeze — voters are annoyed, but not yet ready to fire the incumbent. (sri.siena.edu) ### Why does the city matter so much? Because Democrats do not win New York statewide by merely surviving in New York City. They win by running up the score there. If Hochul’s margins in the city shrink, she has less cushion against weaker territory in the suburbs and upstate. Siena said she still leads by 34 points in the city and only by a handful outside it. That tells you exactly where the load-bearing part of her coalition sits. (sri.siena.edu) ### Does this change 2026 right now? Not on its own. Six months before the election, partisan lanes are still doing most of the work. Siena said roughly three-quarters of Democrats back Hochul and roughly three-quarters of Republicans back Blakeman. But if New York City enthusiasm keeps sagging, the catch is that turnout, donor confidence, and elite endorsements can all get shakier before the race ever looks close. (sri.siena.edu) ### Bottom line? Hochul is not suddenly losing New York. But she is losing altitude where Democrats usually build their margin. That is manageable in May 2026. If it keeps happening, it becomes the race.