Iran War Enters Fourth Day
US-Israel strikes on Iran are now in their fourth day, with Iranian forces retaliating against US-linked targets. The conflict has disrupted 20% of global oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, sparking fears of nuclear escalation and fragile deterrence in a multipolar world with US-China-Russia rivalries.
The recent escalation follows a significant U.S. military buildup in the Middle East, the largest since the 2003 invasion of Iraq. This includes the deployment of two aircraft carrier strike groups, the USS Abraham Lincoln and USS Gerald R. Ford, along with F-35 and F-22 fighter jets. The U.S. has over 40,000 soldiers stationed across 10 countries in the region. Initial joint U.S.-Israeli strikes on February 28, 2026, reportedly targeted nearly 2,000 sites across Iran. The targets included Iranian Air Force facilities, Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) command centers, and ballistic and cruise missile launch sites, with the stated aim of degrading Iran's ability to project force. One of the strikes resulted in the death of Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. In response, Iran has launched retaliatory strikes on U.S. military assets across the Middle East. Targets have included Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, the Al Dhafra base in the UAE, and commercial ports like Jebel Ali used by the U.S. military. Iran possesses a diverse missile arsenal, with some capable of reaching targets up to 2,000 kilometers away. The conflict has severely impacted maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global energy supplies. On March 1, oil tanker traffic plummeted by 86% compared to the 2026 average, with over 700 vessels waiting on either side of the strait. This has already caused a 10% jump in Brent crude oil prices. Roughly one-fifth of the world's total oil consumption passes through this waterway daily. The escalation occurs against the backdrop of the defunct Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the 2015 nuclear deal from which the U.S. withdrew in 2018. Iran officially terminated the agreement in October 2025. Prior to the conflict, Iran had significantly increased its uranium enrichment to levels nearing weapons-grade, and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) had been denied full monitoring access since 2021. While the U.S. and Israel are engaged in joint military action, the response from other world powers has been more measured. China and Russia, while condemning the strikes and the killing of Ayatollah Khamenei, have not intervened militarily, prioritizing their own strategic interests. Both nations have deepened ties with Iran in recent years, but their partnerships are seen as transactional rather than a formal alliance.
