Ukraine escalates air war with drones

Russia’s war in Ukraine has moved further into the air as ground advances remain limited and both sides put more effort into drones, air defenses and long-range strikes. The New York Times reported on August 5 that the search for a breakthrough is increasingly happening above the battlefield rather than across trench lines. Independent battlefield trackers and defense analysts have also described a war in which territorial change is slow, while drone attacks, countermeasures and deep strikes are expanding. August data from the Institute for the Study of War underscored that slowdown on land. ISW said Russian forces advanced 37.85 square kilometers in July, or about 1.22 square kilometers a day, and said the spring-summer offensive had failed to produce operationally significant gains. Carnegie Endowment researchers wrote in April that the conflict had entered a phase defined less by territorial gains than by rapid technological competition. (understandingwar.org) ### Why are drones taking a bigger share of the fighting? ISW said on August 1 that Ukrainian counterattacks, intermediate-range strikes and “drone dominance” were constraining Russia’s rate of advance and its ability to field mechanized vehicles. That has reinforced a battlefield pattern in which cheaper unmanned systems can hit armor, supply routes and troop concentrations before larger formations move. (understandingwar.org) Carnegie Endowment said both countries are now introducing new unmanned systems, countermeasures and operating methods at unusual speed. The think tank described a sustained contest in which Ukraine has leaned on a distributed innovation model involving hundreds of firms and volunteer groups, while Russia has relied more on centralized state direction. (understandingwar.org) ### What is Ukraine trying to hit inside Russia? Ukraine’s Security Service, or SBU, said on August 4 that its drone operators had conducted more than 100 strikes against what it called strategic Russian targets since June 26. Critical Threats and ISW said the target set included defense-industrial facilities, air bases, air defenses, command posts, warships, tankers, oil refineries and transport infrastructure. (carnegieendowment.org) Politico reported in June from a Ukrainian drone facility that Kyiv was using Liutyi long-range kamikaze drones carrying payloads of up to 150 pounds and capable of traveling nearly 1,300 miles. A Ukrainian commander identified only by the call sign “Vector” told Politico that such systems were “our most important card in this war,” and the report said Ukraine was launching an average of 200 to 300 drones a night at targets in Russian territory. (criticalthreats.org) ### How has Russia adapted its own air campaign? Ukraine’s Air Force said on August 3 that Russia launched 181 drones overnight, including Shahed-type attack drones as well as Gerbera, Italmas and Parodiya decoys, according to RBC-Ukraine’s report on the statement. Critical Threats said Russian forces struck Ukraine with more than 100 long-range strike drones on the night of August 3 to 4, alongside one ballistic missile. (politico.com) Carnegie Endowment wrote that both sides are extending first-person-view control and remote operation to greater distances. The group said Ukraine’s move in February to restrict Russia’s use of Starlink-linked communications on long-range drones showed that real-time remotely piloted systems were now operating at ranges once associated with strategic weapons. (newsukraine.rbc.ua) ### What does this change for procurement and air defense? CNBC reported on July 9 that NATO plans to invest more than $40 billion in counter-drone capabilities over five years. Bob Tollast of the Royal United Services Institute told CNBC that Ukrainian gains in inertial navigation, software and machine vision had improved resilience when satellite navigation is jammed. (carnegieendowment.org) Council on Foreign Relations researchers wrote in June that drones were generating 75% to 85% of casualties on the front line and expanding the kill zone 30 to 100 kilometers behind the front. They said the effect was to force Russia to divert resources to protect supply lines and infrastructure, an assessment that matches the broader shift toward air defense, electronic warfare and lower-cost mass production. (cnbc.com) ### What should readers watch next? August battlefield updates from Ukraine’s Air Force, the SBU and outside trackers such as ISW will offer the next measurable read on whether the air campaign is changing Russian logistics or the pace of attacks. President Volodymyr Zelensky said on August 4 that he had approved another SBU operation, though he did not specify its duration or target set. (criticalthreats.org) (cfr.org)