Goldman’s two S&P futures
The S&P 500 closed Friday at 6,632.19 — and Goldman Sachs lays out a split path: 7,600 by year‑end if earnings growth holds, or a crash to 5,400 if a severe Middle East oil shock deepens global recession risk Goldman Sachs sees S&P 500 rising to 7,600, Severe oil shock could drag S&P 500 down to 5,400, Goldman warns. Expect outsized moves around the Fed decision and Powell press conference later this week (March 18) — it’s the logical catalyst to break the range March Fed Meeting: Live Updates and Commentary | Kiplinger.
Goldman’s U.S. equity team, with Ben Snider taking the lead after David Kostin, put a year‑end S&P 500 target of 7,600) and projects a roughly 12% total return for 2026 on the back of what it models as 12% S&P EPS growth to about $305.(markets.financialcontent.com) The firm explicitly credits AI-driven productivity for part of that earnings lift and warns the market’s gains are concentrated: Goldman estimates the seven largest S&P names will together lift collective earnings by about 29% and account for roughly a quarter of S&P EPS growth.(investing.com) Global energy risk is the flip side: Brent crude traded near $103 per barrel on March 16 after breaching $100 earlier in March amid U.S.–Israeli strikes and Strait of Hormuz shipping disruptions, a spike flagged by major outlets tracking the Iran conflict.(tradingeconomics.com) In its stress test, Goldman says a “severe oil supply shock” would knock the S&P down to about 5,400 — roughly a 19% reduction that, in the bank’s scenario, would compress the index’s P/E multiple to near 16x.(morningstar.com) Goldman’s base case assumes the forward P/E holds near today’s ~22x, meaning the outlook pivots on earnings durability; the bank warns that elevated multiples amplify downside if that 12% EPS path falters.(webull.com) The immediate catalyst is the March 17–18 FOMC meeting: the Fed will issue its policy decision and Chair Powell will hold a press conference on March 18 at 2:30 p.m. ET, an event markets and strategists say could trigger the outsized move that separates the 7,600 path from the 5,400 stress case.(federalreserve.gov)
