Playoff seeds mostly hold
- Early NBA first-round odds show the better seed favored in seven of eight matchups through April 23. (nytimes.com) - The notable exception is Rockets vs. Lakers, where injury and matchup questions make the series especially volatile. (nytimes.com) - Knicks-Hawks Game 3 is a pick’em, signaling one of the first-round series likely to swing quickly. (nytimes.com)
Through Thursday, April 23, the higher seed is favored to win seven of the NBA’s eight first-round series. (nba.com) (sports.yahoo.com) The bracket reflects that chalk almost everywhere: Cleveland leads Toronto 2-0, Oklahoma City leads Phoenix 2-0, and New York, Boston, San Antonio and Denver are all in series where the better seed still holds the edge despite early splits. (nba.com) (sports.yahoo.com) The outlier is West No. 4 Los Angeles against No. 5 Houston. The Lakers lead 2-0 on the floor, but the market listed Los Angeles at -130 and Houston at +110 to win the series, the narrowest gap of any matchup still leaning toward the lower seed as a live threat. (sports.yahoo.com) (cbssports.com) That setup fits the structure of the first round: the NBA pairs No. 1 with No. 8, No. 2 with No. 7, No. 3 with No. 6 and No. 4 with No. 5, then gives the higher seed home games in a 2-2-1-1-1 format. Early odds usually reward regular-season separation unless injuries or matchup problems cut into it. (sports.yahoo.com) This year’s field also produced several 1-1 series before the first road games, which is where the pressure shifts fastest. Knicks-Hawks moved to Atlanta tied 1-1, and Game 3 was scheduled for Thursday, April 23, at 7 p.m. Eastern on Prime Video. (nba.com) (cbssports.com) The same pattern showed up elsewhere. Boston’s No. 2-vs.-No. 7 series with Philadelphia was tied 1-1 after the 76ers won Game 2 in Boston, and San Antonio’s No. 2-vs.-No. 7 series with Portland was tied 1-1 after the Trail Blazers stole Game 2. (sports.yahoo.com) (cbssports.com) The Lakers-Rockets series has carried more uncertainty than a typical 4-5 matchup because Houston got Kevin Durant back for Game 2 after he missed Game 1 with a knee injury. Los Angeles still won 101-94 on Tuesday behind 28 points, eight rebounds and seven assists from LeBron James. (cbssports.com) The first round began April 18 and can run through May 3. By Friday, April 24, the bracket will have its first full set of Game 3s, and that is usually when the market stops pricing possibility and starts reacting to control. (cbssports.com)
