NYT finds 80 suspicious Polymarket users

The New York Times reported on May 13 that more than 80 Polymarket accounts had placed bets with “suspicious characteristics,” after examining on-chain activity and account histories on the prediction-market platform. The report said 38 of those accounts made well-timed, long-shot wagers that later paid out across nearly 30 topics, including war, politics and cryptocurrency. The findings add to a widening 2026 debate over whether prediction markets are becoming a venue for trading on nonpublic information. The debate has already drawn responses from Polymarket, federal prosecutors and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. ### How did the Times say it found the suspicious accounts? The New York Times said its review focused on blockchain data and account histories that appeared to show repeated, well-timed bets placed before market-moving events. The paper said the accounts were not random winners spread across many ordinary trades, but users whose profits clustered around specific, unlikely outcomes that later came true. (nytimes.com) More than 80 accounts met the paper’s broader definition of suspicious activity, according to the report, and 38 of them were highlighted as especially notable because they made long-shot trades that drew little or no public attention before paying off. Those trades spanned nearly 30 subjects dating back to at least 2024, the Times said. ### Which bets stood out in the report? (nytimes.com) The Times said the flagged trades touched wars, political races and crypto-related developments. Its examples included bets tied to Israel’s strike on Iran and to regulatory or market-moving developments in cryptocurrency, according to the report summary visible from the article and follow-on coverage citing it. (nytimes.com) NPR added a separate example on May 7, reporting that campaign staffers had used internal polling data to trade on election markets. NPR said one anonymous staffer described the practice as common enough that colleagues were making “thousands” of dollars per cycle by betting before private numbers became public. ### What does the former staffer allegation add? (dnyuz.com) NPR reported on May 7 that campaign aides described prediction markets as a “Wild West” for people with access to private polling. The outlet said one staffer acknowledged using internal survey results to place bets before publication, then cashing out after the market moved. That account matters because it describes a direct pipeline from confidential political information to a tradable market. (npr.org) The Times’ report did not depend on that admission alone, but the NPR account gave a named news organization’s example of how a participant with privileged access said the practice worked in real time. ### Has Polymarket changed its rules? (npr.org) Polymarket updated its insider-trading rules in March after scrutiny over suspiciously timed bets, according to Bloomberg and CBS News. The new language, as described by those reports, said users cannot trade on stolen confidential information, illegal tips or information tied to events they can influence directly. (npr.org) Bloomberg also reported on March 31 that CFTC enforcement director David Miller said insider-trading law applies to prediction markets. “That is wrong,” Miller said of the idea that such markets sit outside insider-trading rules, according to Bloomberg’s account of his remarks at New York University. (bloomberg.com) ### Have U.S. authorities already brought a case? The U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Southern District of New York said on April 23 that it charged Army service member Gannon Ken Van Dyke with using classified, nonpublic government information to place profitable Polymarket bets. Prosecutors said Van Dyke made about 13 bets between Dec. 27, 2025, and Jan. 2, 2026, tied to Venezuela and Nicolás Maduro after participating in planning for a U.S. operation. (bloomberg.com) The CFTC filed a parallel civil case the same day, saying Van Dyke engaged in insider trading on Polymarket using classified nonpublic information. Those filings gave regulators and prosecutors an early test case as scrutiny of prediction-market trading widened beyond one platform and into the broader event-contract business. ### What happens next? March 23 is the date Polymarket used to announce its updated integrity rules, and April 23 is the date federal prosecutors and the CFTC brought the Van Dyke cases. (justice.gov) Those milestones mean the next developments are likely to come from court filings, regulatory statements or further platform enforcement tied to specific accounts and trades. (bloomberg.com) (cftc.gov)