Moana projected $45M–$55M opening

Boxoffice Pro said on July 9 that Disney’s live-action “Moana” is tracking to open to $45 million to $55 million in North America over the July 10-12 weekend, setting up the film as the expected leader of the post-holiday frame. The trade outlet’s weekend forecast also put Warner Bros.’ “Evil Dead Burn” at $25 million to $30 million domestically, well behind Disney’s family title. The projection lands after a soft July 4 corridor for the broader market, with exhibitors and analysts watching whether another recognizable brand can steady traffic. Variety, citing tracking services, reported a somewhat higher range for “Moana” of $60 million to $65 million from 3,875 North American theaters. ### Why is the “Moana” number getting so much attention? Disney is opening a live-action version of one of its most durable recent animated brands. Boxoffice Pro said the new film’s projected $45 million to $55 million start would trail the 2016 animated original’s $56.6 million domestic opening and sit far below “Moana 2,” which Boxoffice Pro said debuted to $139.78 million. Variety said the live-action remake is expected to launch from 3,875 North American theaters. (boxofficepro.com) Variety reported that “Moana” “might be heading for choppy waters,” reflecting concern in the exhibition market that the remake may not match the scale of other recent franchise launches. Boxoffice Pro also described the title as “another big tentpole struggling to show the sort of traction its predecessors in the franchise did,” tying the forecast to weaker-than-expected momentum relative to earlier entries. (boxofficepro.com) ### How does “Evil Dead Burn” fit into the weekend race? Warner Bros.’ “Evil Dead Burn” is positioned as the main new challenger, though on current forecasts it is not expected to catch “Moana.” Boxoffice Pro’s July 9 weekend preview gave the horror release a $25 million to $30 million opening range for July 10-12. (variety.com) Boxoffice Pro had been more bullish earlier in the cycle. In a June 26 long-range forecast, the outlet projected “Evil Dead Burn” for a $30 million to $40 million domestic debut, meaning the newer estimate represents a lower range heading into opening weekend. Boxoffice Pro said the film is the first big-screen entry in the franchise since “Evil Dead Rise,” which opened to $24.5 million in 2023 and finished with $67.2 million domestically. (boxofficepro.com) ### What does this say about the state of the box office right now? July 9 forecasts are arriving after a mixed early-summer stretch for Hollywood releases. Boxoffice Pro said the frame follows “an underwhelming July 4 holiday,” a sign that the market is still looking for a breakout performer before later-summer tentpoles arrive. (boxofficepro.com) Boxoffice Pro had previously said “Toy Story 5” was expected to hold the opening-weekend benchmark for 2026 until “Spider-Man: Brand New Day” opens later in July. In that earlier preview, the outlet also said “Moana” would face some of the heaviest family competition of the year, with “Minions & Monsters” already in the market. (boxofficepro.com) ### Why are forecasts for the same movie differing? Tracking ranges often vary by outlet because they are built from different survey inputs, theater counts and late-cycle assumptions about walk-up business. On July 9, Boxoffice Pro pegged “Moana” at $45 million to $55 million, while Variety reported that tracking services were estimating $60 million to $65 million. Both forecasts nevertheless place Disney’s film ahead of “Evil Dead Burn” for the weekend. (boxofficepro.com) The next hard data point will come once ticket sales begin to register through Friday and studios release weekend estimates. Disney’s “Moana” and Warner Bros.’ “Evil Dead Burn” both open July 10, with domestic results for the July 10-12 frame due over the weekend. (boxofficepro.com)