Tariff and legal uncertainty hits chip trade

A 25% U.S. tariff on some semiconductors re-exported to China is now colliding with a Supreme Court ruling that wiped out a separate set of Trump tariffs. (commonslibrary.parliament.uk) (supreme.justia.com) The UK House of Commons Library said the semiconductor tariff took effect on January 14, 2026, and applies to “specific semiconductors” that are re-exported to China. The same briefing said the UK and U.S. are still negotiating possible semiconductor exemptions. (commonslibrary.parliament.uk) A month earlier, on February 20, 2026, the U.S. Supreme Court held in *Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump* that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act does not authorize the president to impose tariffs. Chief Justice John Roberts wrote for the court that Congress had not clearly granted that power in the statute. (supreme.justia.com) (scotusblog.com) The court answered the legality question but did not spell out how refunds should work for duties already collected. SCOTUSblog said the opinion left “remedial mechanics” to later proceedings, and Politico reported the majority opinion did not resolve the refund issue. (scotusblog.com) (politico.com) That leaves chip buyers and importers dealing with two separate pressures at once: tariffs that can still apply under other authorities, and export controls that can block shipments outright. The Bureau of Industry and Security says it is running Section 232 investigations on semiconductors, and its recent semiconductor licensing policy ties approvals to supply, screening, and testing conditions. (bis.gov 1) (bis.gov 2) For artificial intelligence hardware, export controls have already moved from theory to balance-sheet cost. Nvidia told the Securities and Exchange Commission that the U.S. government imposed an indefinite license requirement on H20 chip exports to China on April 14, 2025, and the company later reported a $4.5 billion first-quarter charge tied to excess inventory and purchase obligations. (sec.gov 1) (sec.gov 2) Nvidia also said H20 sales reached $4.6 billion in that quarter before the new licensing rule hit. In its latest annual filing, the company said the China license requirement covers H20 chips and other circuits that match H20 thresholds for memory bandwidth or interconnect bandwidth. (sec.gov 1) (sec.gov 2) Congress’s research arm has described the policy goal behind these controls in broader terms: slowing China’s access to advanced chips and related artificial intelligence computing while preserving U.S. technology leadership. The Bureau of Industry and Security has paired that strategy with new Entity List additions and tighter rules on advanced computing semiconductors. (congress.gov) (bis.gov) (bis.gov) Importers are already lining up for repayment on the tariffs the court struck down. The Associated Press reported on April 22 that a refund system was scheduled to open the following Monday, while lawyers at Crowell & Moring and Skadden said companies still need to preserve claims as lower courts sort out timing and scope. (apnews.com) (crowell.com) (skadden.com) For companies building or financing AI systems, the result is a market where the price of a chip depends not just on silicon and demand, but on which law is being used, which country is on the paperwork, and whether a shipment can move at all. (commonslibrary.parliament.uk) (supreme.justia.com) (bis.gov)