Drones and Russia’s oil windfall

Ukraine’s drone campaign has reached Russia’s oil export system, and Reuters calculated on March 25 that at least 40% of export capacity was halted. (nbcnews.com) Reuters said the disruption came from three blows at once: Ukrainian strikes on export hubs, a disputed attack on a major pipeline, and tanker seizures. The affected flow was about 2 million barrels a day, hitting Russia as oil traded above $100 a barrel during the Iran war. (usnews.com) The ports named in follow-on reports included Primorsk and Ust-Luga on the Baltic and Novorossiysk on the Black Sea, which handle a large share of Russia’s seaborne crude exports. Ukraine also struck a refinery in Yaroslavl in late March, part of a wider campaign against fuel and export infrastructure. (newsbreak.com) Oil is Russia’s main budget engine, and the timing mattered because higher world prices were poised to lift Kremlin revenue. Reuters called the March shutdown the most severe oil supply disruption in modern Russian history. (bairdmaritime.com) The campaign did not start at the ports. Ukraine spent 2024 and 2025 hitting refineries, storage depots and fuel plants deeper inside Russia, forcing lower crude processing and tightening domestic fuel supply. (iea.org) The International Energy Agency said in its October 2025 oil market report that escalating attacks on Russian infrastructure cut activity, and that disrupted Russian refining and exports helped lift diesel and jet fuel margins. In its December 2025 report, it said Russian oil exports fell by 420,000 barrels a day in November and revenues dropped to $11 billion. (iea.org, iea.org) Russian officials have tried to cushion the damage by prioritizing domestic supply. Reuters reported in 2025 that Moscow kept or extended fuel export curbs after refinery strikes contributed to shortages and higher costs at home. (businessukraine.ua) The revenue picture is uneven, not one-way. The International Energy Agency said Russia’s crude and fuel export revenues rebounded to $19 billion in March 2026 after a February low, showing that price spikes and policy waivers can offset part of the physical damage. (themoscowtimes.com) Moscow has said attacks on its energy system amount to economic warfare, while Kyiv has framed them as strikes on assets that finance Russia’s invasion. What changed in March was the scale: drones were no longer just singeing refineries, but interrupting the routes that turn oil into cash. (aljazeera.com)