Fed seen holding rates
Markets expect the Federal Reserve to hold interest rates steady at its March meeting as policymakers weigh inflation risks from the Iran war and oil shocks — a backdrop that keeps borrowing costs higher for households. That stance clouds timing for rate cuts and keeps mortgage and loan rates elevated for now. (businessinsider.com) (finance.yahoo.com)
CME FedWatch shows market-implied odds above 95% that the FOMC will make no policy change at the March 18 decision, with the policy statement scheduled for 2:00 p.m. ET and Chair Powell’s press conference at 2:30 p.m. (cbsnews.com) The Fed’s target range currently sits at 3.50%–3.75% with the effective federal funds rate trading near 3.64%, leaving the policy midpoint around 3.625%. (rateprobability.com) Futures and probability trackers show markets pulling back on near-term cuts: CME/FedWatch and other tools put the chance of holding through April and June substantially higher than it was a month ago, shifting the first market-implied cut later into 2026. (cbsnews.com) Global energy shocks have pushed benchmark crude above $100 a barrel in mid‑March, and U.S. crude logged its largest weekly gain ever — a roughly 35.6% jump in early March — adding upside risk to headline inflation. (apnews.com) Mortgage markets have already reacted: Freddie Mac’s weekly survey showed the 30‑year fixed averaged about 6.11% in mid‑March after a jump from roughly 6.00% the prior week. (foxbusiness.com) The release of the Fed’s Summary of Economic Projections and the “dot plot” is the main market focus today, with several desks warning that fewer projected cuts in the SEP would push the market’s first expected cut into the fall months (October and later). (financialexpress.com)
