Inflation and Oil Surge
U.S. price pressures showed core inflation at +2.8% year-over-year in January, and Brent crude is trading above $100/barrel — a combination that tightens input-cost risk for CPG margins, pricing, and working capital reported and reported. The macro shock transmits through transport, packaging and labor costs — creating scenarios FP&A must model now.
Goldman Sachs raised its near‑term oil outlook citing damage to Middle East energy infrastructure and escalation risks from the Iran conflict, a factor financial plans must now bake into scenario P&L and working‑capital stress tests. money.usnews.com Major carriers including Maersk, CMA CGM and Evergreen have suspended Gulf services and invoked force‑majeure clauses after tanker and container traffic through the Strait of Hormuz slowed to a crawl, triggering route reroutes and container booking halts that drive spot rate volatility. container-mag.com Packaging and input markets are already moving: LME aluminium traded around $3,420/ton on March 13, up roughly 27% year‑over‑year, while North‑American PET resin spot lists at about $1.48/kg—two inputs that directly widen CPG unit costs and capex on canning and bottle runs. tradingeconomics.com Higher diesel pushed average U.S. on‑road diesel to about $3.72/gal in February, prompting renewed fuel‑surcharge passes from carriers and underscoring why FP&A models should test a 20–30% uplift in transport line items and evaluate fuel‑hedging contracts and carrier renegotiation playbooks. chrobinson.com CPG executives are already adjusting go‑to‑market levers: PepsiCo announced targeted retail price reductions of up to ~15% on select snack SKUs as a volume‑recovery tactic, illustrating a playbook trade‑off between margin protection and market‑share restoration that FP&A must quantify across scenarios. pepsico.com
