Freight friction is rising
- U.S. airfreight capacity is declining, pushing shippers to reroute cargo and use alternative transport modes. - The New York Times reports diesel disruption is now a bigger economic problem than gasoline after recent geopolitical shocks. - Less air capacity and diesel stress increase the value of facilities that shorten truck miles or serve as regional inventory buffers. ( )
Moving goods across the U.S. is getting harder as airfreight space shrinks and diesel stays expensive, forcing shippers to rework routes and timing. (freshplaza.com, eia.gov) FreshPlaza reported on April 22 that U.S. shippers are shifting freight plans as air capacity declines, especially for time-sensitive produce and other high-value cargo. C.H. Robinson said on April 9 that Middle East airspace restrictions, higher fuel costs and uneven regional lift are limiting flexibility across key lanes. (freshplaza.com, chrobinson.com) Those air detours are not minor. C.H. Robinson said flights that normally cross Gulf airspace are being rerouted through Central Asia or North Africa, adding 1 to 3 hours and reducing effective capacity because planes take longer to complete each trip. (chrobinson.com) The squeeze is also structural, not just geopolitical. IATA, cited by Air Cargo News in January, said aircraft shortages, engine constraints and slower passenger-plane retirements are keeping widebody freighter capacity tight well into 2026, with industry normalization unlikely before the early 2030s. (aircargonews.net) At the same time, diesel has become the more punishing fuel for the broader economy. The U.S. Energy Information Administration said the national average on-highway diesel price was $5.403 a gallon on April 20, compared with $4.044 for regular gasoline. (eia.gov) Diesel also feeds more of the supply chain than gasoline does. Reuters reported on April 14 that more than 3 million U.S. truckers were facing the highest diesel prices in years, and American Trucking Associations data show trucks moved 11.3 billion tons of freight in 2024, nearly three-quarters of the national total. (usnews.com) Supply is tighter on the diesel side too. The Energy Information Administration said distillate inventories fell by 3.1 million barrels in the week ended April 10 and were about 6% below the five-year average, while distillate production also decreased to 4.9 million barrels a day. (eia.gov) That combination is changing what counts as valuable logistics real estate. JLL said third-party logistics demand for industrial space rose 12.8% year over year even as traditional retailers cut space requirements by 16.7%, a sign that operators are paying more for sites that hold inventory closer to customers and reduce truck miles. (jll.com) Facilities near large population centers or major freight junctions do not remove the airfreight shortage or the diesel spike. They do give shippers fewer long hauls, more chances to pool inventory, and less need to pay for the fastest mode every time something slips. (jll.com, chrobinson.com) If air routes stay longer and diesel stays above $5 a gallon, the cheapest mile in freight may be the one a company never has to move at all. (eia.gov, chrobinson.com)
