Dual shipping chokepoints strain markets
The Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el‑Mandeb are both under heightened threat, pushing oil prices past $100 a barrel and forcing shippers to reroute around southern Africa — South African ports are seeing nearly double their usual volume. Analysts warn that a simultaneous disruption at both chokepoints would spike shipping costs and could amplify inflation across energy, food and manufacturing, with some saying the shock could rival the 1970s oil crisis. (markets.financialcontent.com) (nytimes.com) (theconversation.com)
The Port of Cape Town logged a 112% surge in diverted vessel calls in March as ships bypassed the Red Sea corridor, and Transnet reported notably higher vessel calls at both Cape Town and Durban this month. (capeargus.co.za) Major carriers including Maersk, Hapag‑Lloyd, CMA CGM and MSC announced temporary suspensions of Trans‑Suez sailings and rerouted ME11/MECL and other Asia‑Europe services via the Cape of Good Hope in the first week of March. (maersk.com) Rerouting via the Cape adds roughly 10–14 extra sailing days and an estimated 7,000–10,000 nautical miles to key Asia‑Europe lanes, boosting bunker consumption and on‑voyage operating costs. (themiddleeastinsider.com) Container freight benchmarks have jumped: Drewry’s World Container Index rose to about $2,279 per 40ft box in late March, up around 5% week‑on‑week, while the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index showed sharp spikes on Middle‑East routes. (drewry.co.uk) Tanker freight exploded as well, with VLCC earnings spiking above $400,000 per day on Middle‑East routes as insurers withdrew cover for Hormuz transits and owners rebooked longer voyages. (cnbc.com) UNCTAD and UN reporting flagged immediate risks to fertiliser shipments and grain flows from the Strait‑and‑Red‑Sea disruptions, warning shortages could push food prices higher in vulnerable importers. (unctad.org) International agencies and analysts are already revising outlooks: IEA chief Fatih Birol described the situation as an unprecedented energy shock, S&P Global raised near‑term inflation forecasts, and an IMF working paper quantifies how port‑to‑port delays feed through to consumer prices. (timesnownews.com)
