Oil tops $100 again
Oil prices climbed above $100 per barrel after peace talks failed and threats around the Strait of Hormuz raised supply‑risk fears. Reporting highlights a widening gap between paper (futures) prices and strains in the physical market, suggesting a deeper supply shock than headline benchmarks alone show (New York Times; Al Jazeera). (nytimes.com) (aljazeera.com)
Oil climbed back above $100 a barrel on April 13 after weekend peace talks between the United States and Iran ended without a deal and Washington moved toward a Strait of Hormuz blockade. (thehindu.com) Brent crude rose to $102.80 a barrel by 2310 Greenwich Mean Time, up 7.98%, while United States West Texas Intermediate traded at $104.88, up 8.61%, according to Reuters market reporting published April 13. (thehindu.com) Reuters also reported that the United States was preparing to block ships to and from Iran through Hormuz after talks failed, leaving a two-week ceasefire under new strain. (usnews.com) Hormuz is a narrow shipping lane between Iran and Oman, and about 20 million barrels a day of oil move through it, according to the International Energy Agency. The agency says that is about 25% of global seaborne oil trade. (iea.org) The United States Energy Information Administration says flows through Hormuz in 2024 averaged 20 million barrels a day, equal to about one-fifth of global petroleum liquids consumption, with few alternatives if the route is disrupted. (eia.gov) That is why traders watch more than the benchmark price on a screen. The International Energy Agency says only 3.5 million to 5.5 million barrels a day of pipeline capacity can bypass the strait, far below the volume that normally transits it. (iea.org) Recent reporting has described a gap between futures prices and the physical market, where actual cargoes, tanker access and delivery timing show tighter conditions than the headline benchmark alone. (nytimes.com) That distinction matters in fuel markets because futures are financial contracts, while the physical market is the trade in real barrels loaded onto ships and delivered to refineries. Al Jazeera reported on April 13 that the physical side has shown deeper strain than the paper market. (aljazeera.com) Traffic has not snapped back even after earlier diplomatic efforts. Reuters reported on April 11 that only three fully laden supertankers appeared to be the first vessels to exit the Gulf since the latest closure, based on shipping data. (msn.com) Wall Street is already sketching out what a longer disruption could mean. Bloomberg reported on April 9 that Goldman Sachs saw Brent averaging above $100 through 2026 if Hormuz remained closed for another month. (bloomberg.com) For now, the market is pricing the risk that even a short-lived choke point in Hormuz can remove enough real barrels from the system to push oil back into triple digits. (iea.org)
