Million-dollar home sales rise 9.3%; lower-end fall 1.3%

IndexBox published a May 17 analysis showing the U.S. spring housing market split along price lines, with sales of homes priced above $1 million rising 9.3% while lower-end transactions fell 1.3%. The report said affluent homeowners with substantial equity were driving more activity at the top of the market, even as affordability pressures continued to weigh on entry-level buyers. The findings added to a broader picture of uneven housing demand in 2026, with national sales still constrained by mortgage costs and limited resale supply. National Association of Realtors data released in April and cited in recent market reports showed pending sales and existing-home closings remained subdued overall. ### Where is the split in the market showing up most clearly? The 9.3% gain in million-dollar home sales was the sharpest figure in the IndexBox analysis published on May 17, and it stood against a 1.3% decline in lower-end home sales. IndexBox said the spring market was being shaped by buyers and sellers with more housing equity and more cash flexibility than first-time purchasers. The May 17 analysis described the divergence as national in scope and said it also included regional breakouts. IndexBox did not present the market as broadly accelerating across all price tiers; instead, it reported stronger turnover at the high end while lower-priced segments remained under pressure. ### Why are expensive homes still moving? High-equity homeowners were identified by IndexBox as a main reason million-dollar sales were rising. Owners who bought earlier, refinanced at lower rates, or accumulated gains during the pandemic-era run-up in prices have more room to absorb current borrowing costs or trade up with larger down payments. March 2026 data from the National Association of Realtors pointed to the same affordability divide in the broader market. Pending home sales rose 1.5% month over month in March, but NAR said the index remained a leading indicator for a market still constrained by financing costs and inventory. Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said in the March release that “a greater supply of inventory will help translate that demand into more home sales.” ### How weak is the broader market outside luxury sales? March 2026 existing-home sales ran at a 3.98 million annual pace, down 3.6% from February and down 1% from a year earlier, according to a May 5 IndexBox report summarizing NAR data. That report said the March pace was the slowest for that month since 2009. The national median existing-home price reached a record $408,800 for March, according to the same report. (nar.realtor) The combination matters because it shows prices staying high even as overall turnover remains weak. IndexBox said lower-end sales were falling in spring 2026, and the March national data showed the broader resale market had not yet regained momentum. ### Is this only a national story, or are some regions different? (indexbox.io) New Jersey and parts of the Northeast were cited in a separate April 12 IndexBox market analysis as places where competition remained intense despite a more buyer-friendly backdrop in many other areas. That report said limited inventory, above-average incomes and persistent demand were keeping pressure on prices in those markets. (indexbox.io) The April 12 report also said higher-priced and larger properties were selling especially fast in parts of Monmouth County, New Jersey, according to local agents quoted by IndexBox. That regional detail does not cover the whole country, but it matches the broader pattern of more resilience at the upper end of the market. (indexbox.io) ### What should readers watch next? The National Association of Realtors said its next pending home sales release, covering April 2026, is due on Tuesday, May 19, at 10 a.m. Eastern. The group said existing-home sales releases are issued on or near the 20th of each month and include commentary from Chief Economist Lawrence Yun on sales, prices, inventory and rates. (indexbox.io) That release will offer the next official read on whether the spring market remained split between cash-rich or equity-rich buyers and households still struggling with affordability. (nar.realtor)