Deterrence gets more practical

Japan, Taiwan and the United States are all moving from signaling to rehearsal around Taiwan, with new drills, new training methods and sharper public lines. (pna.gov.ph) Japan will send combat troops to the Philippines for Balikatan 2026, the first such deployment on Philippine soil since 1945, Philippine Armed Forces chief Gen. Romeo Brawner Jr. said on March 24. The exercise opens on April 20 and will include forces from the Philippines, the United States, Australia and Japan. (gmanetwork.com) Brawner said Japan’s role in past years was limited to trainers for humanitarian assistance and disaster response, but this year the four countries will train for defensive operations. Japanese participation expanded after the Reciprocal Access Agreement took effect, making it easier for the two countries to deploy forces on each other’s territory. (pna.gov.ph; navalnews.com) Taiwan is changing its own drills at the same time. The tabletop phase of Han Kuang, its main annual war exercise, began on April 11 and runs through April 24, with 14 days of around-the-clock simulation for the second straight year. (taipeitimes.com) Taiwan’s defense officials said this year’s Han Kuang drills are adding United States-style rehearsal methods to improve coordination and combat readiness. The scenarios are unscripted, built around decentralized command, and designed to test what happens if Chinese military pressure suddenly turns into an actual attack. (focustaiwan.tw; taipeitimes.com) The simulations use the Joint Theater Level Simulation platform, a United States-built system that lets commanders test decisions across services and agencies in real time. Taiwan’s military said the drills also rehearse reserve mobilization and coordination with civilian authorities through the Central Joint Response Center. (taipeitimes.com) In Taipei on April 12, former United States Army Pacific commander Charles Flynn said China has “no say” in United States arms sales to Taiwan. He also said countries should look for “creative ways” to let Taiwan train overseas or to bring partner forces to Taiwan for joint exercises. (taiwannews.com.tw; taipeitimes.com) Flynn tied that argument to changes in China’s military over the past decade, saying the People’s Liberation Army has modernized quickly and aligned its training across forces since roughly 2014 to 2016. Taiwan’s own planners are now building Han Kuang around the same problem: a Chinese drill or “gray zone” action that turns into a real assault with little warning. (taiwannews.com.tw; taipeitimes.com) China says Taiwan is part of its territory and opposes foreign military support for Taipei, while the United States and its partners have expanded exercises and security ties across the first island chain. In the Philippines, Brawner said the point of Balikatan 2026 is to show the four countries can train together for defensive operations under a rules-based order. (taiwannews.com.tw; gmanetwork.com) The next test is whether these changes stay on paper or become routine. By late April, the region will have a clearer answer from the troops in the Philippines and the command posts in Taiwan. (gmanetwork.com; taipeitimes.com)