Analysts: Iran–Israel clashes and Gulf tensions are eroding U.S. military readiness

U.S. officials and defense analysts say the Iran war and earlier Red Sea fighting have put new pressure on American missile stockpiles. (csis.org) (congress.gov) The Congressional Research Service said the United States and Israel began military operations against Iran on February 28, 2026, and Congress has since sought details on the status of U.S. munitions inventories. (congress.gov) That CRS review said U.S. Central Command commander Adm. Brad Cooper reported on March 3 that U.S. forces had struck nearly 2,000 targets with more than 2,000 munitions, and Defense Department officials said on March 10 that total targets hit had passed 5,000. (congress.gov) The same report said the United States has used Joint Direct Attack Munitions, Low-cost Unmanned Combat Attack System drones, Patriot batteries, Terminal High Altitude Area Defense systems and ballistic-missile-defense destroyers in the campaign. (congress.gov) On April 21, Center for Strategic and International Studies analysts Mark Cancian and Chris Park wrote that the United States still has enough missiles to keep fighting under plausible Iran-war scenarios, but that “the risk” now lies in future wars. (csis.org) Their estimate was sharper than the public Pentagon line: CSIS said the war may have consumed more than half of the prewar inventory of at least four key munitions, including Tomahawk land-attack missiles. (csis.org) At the same April 21 Senate Armed Services Committee hearing, Adm. Samuel Paparo, who leads U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, said there are “finite limits to the magazine” and called for the defense industrial base to be “supercharge[d]” to replenish stocks. (notus.org) (armed-services.senate.gov) Paparo also warned in written testimony, as reported by NOTUS, that the United States faces a mismatch between the time needed to make munitions and the quantities a high-intensity war would require. (notus.org) Lawmakers tied that warning to force movements as well as missiles. NOTUS reported that Sen. Jack Reed said the administration had transferred major military capabilities from the Pacific to the Middle East, while Paparo said other forces had filled the gap. (notus.org) The readiness debate did not begin with Iran. In January 2025, Vice Adm. Brendan McLane said Navy ships in the Red Sea had fired 220 missiles and 160 five-inch shells in 380 engagements over roughly 15 months against Houthi attacks. (military.com) The War Zone, citing the same Navy disclosure, said that tally included 120 Standard Missile-2 interceptors, 80 Standard Missile-6 interceptors, and 20 combined Evolved Sea Sparrow and Standard Missile-3 interceptors. (twz.com) Those missiles are not interchangeable with every other fight. Standard Missile interceptors defend ships and help counter air and missile threats, while Tomahawks and Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missiles are long-range strike weapons that would also matter in a Pacific war. (csis.org) (congress.gov) Shipping pressure has run alongside the military strain. Lloyd’s List reported on April 21 that some ships trapped in the Gulf were skimping on war-risk cover because premiums had become too expensive during the Strait of Hormuz crisis. (lloydslist.com) The Pentagon’s public position remains that current operations are supportable. The Congressional Research Service said Defense Department officials have maintained that sufficient munitions are available, while keeping detailed stockpile levels classified as an operational-security matter. (congress.gov) That leaves the core point narrower than some online commentary suggests: the United States is not out of weapons, but officials, lawmakers and outside analysts are now openly arguing about how much margin is left for the next war. (csis.org) (notus.org)