IMD Forecasts 'Above-Normal' Heatwave

The forecast for above-normal heatwave days is concentrated in several specific regions, including West Rajasthan, Gujarat, Haryana, Punjab, and large parts of Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, West Bengal, Odisha, and Telangana. This follows a February that was the driest in over two decades, with rainfall across India being the lowest since 2001. Meteorologically, the prediction is influenced by weak La Niña conditions over the equatorial Pacific, which are expected to transition to neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions in the coming months. While March may see normal to below-normal temperatures in many areas, the overall trend for the three-month period points towards elevated heat. This pattern of increasingly intense and frequent heatwaves is a documented trend, with climate change making such events 30 times more likely. Three of the five warmest years in India have been recorded in the last decade, and the number of very warm nights has been rising faster than the number of very hot days. This long-term trend heightens the risks associated with the 2026 forecast. For outdoor vendors and event-based commerce, the economic impact can be severe. A recent report on street vendors revealed that nearly half (49.3%) experienced income loss during heatwaves, with 80% noting a decline in customer numbers. The heat also leads to increased spoilage of perishable goods, further squeezing vendor profits. The health and productivity of vendors are significantly compromised under extreme heat. A survey highlighted that 73.4% of street vendors experienced irritability, 66.9% reported headaches, and 67.5% suffered from dehydration. Despite these risks, a staggering 82.7% of vendors reported having no guidance on how to manage heatwave conditions. In response to past events, the Labour and Employment Ministry has issued advisories for states to take proactive measures, including the rescheduling of work hours for laborers and outdoor workers. However, access to basic amenities remains a critical issue; surveys show over 90% of vendors need access to drinking water and washroom facilities at marketplaces to cope. The increased power demand for cooling during heatwaves often leads to operational strains for small businesses, who face higher costs from running power backups like diesel generators. This financial pressure, combined with reduced footfall and direct health impacts, creates a significant challenge for the small entrepreneurs who are vital to local event-based economies.