China Kicks Off its 15th Five-Year Plan
China has launched its 15th Five-Year Plan, which will guide the country's economic development from 2026 to 2030. State media is emphasizing domestic growth, technological innovation, and supply chain security as top priorities for maintaining economic resilience.
The 15th Five-Year Plan builds on the "dual circulation" strategy emphasized in the preceding 14th Five-Year Plan, which aimed to bolster the domestic economy and reduce reliance on foreign technology. This earlier plan, which concludes in 2025, focused on making China a "manufacturing superpower" and a global leader in strategic industries. A key objective of the 14th Five-Year Plan was to increase research and development spending by over 7% annually, with a focus on artificial intelligence, quantum computing, and semiconductors. It also set ambitious environmental targets, including an 18% reduction in CO2 intensity and a 13.5% decrease in energy intensity per unit of GDP by 2025. The formulation of the 15th Five-Year Plan is a methodical process led by China's National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC). The initial guiding principles were outlined by the Communist Party's Central Committee in October 2025, with the final, detailed plan scheduled for formal approval and publication by the National People's Congress in March 2026. This new plan is expected to continue prioritizing "high-quality development" over sheer quantitative growth, a theme that emerged in the previous plan which set flexible economic growth targets. The overarching goal is to achieve "basic socialist modernization" by 2035, with the 2026-2030 period being a critical phase. Technological self-reliance is a central pillar of the upcoming plan, a response to sustained U.S. export controls on advanced technologies like semiconductors. Expect a continued push to strengthen domestic innovation in areas like AI and biotechnology to ensure supply chain autonomy. Alongside tech, the plan will heavily focus on green transition and sustainability. This includes expanding renewable energy sources like solar and wind, promoting electric vehicles, and building out green industrial parks as China works towards its goal of peaking carbon emissions by 2030. Boosting domestic consumption is another core component, with aims to expand the middle class and increase spending on healthcare, education, and digital services. The plan also emphasizes food security, with a focus on modernizing agriculture through technology and upgrading the entire food value chain from production to logistics. The 15th Five-Year Plan is being developed under the leadership of Premier Li Qiang, who has chaired special meetings on its preparation. The plan is seen as crucial for President Xi Jinping, as its timeline coincides with the 2027 centennial of the People's Liberation Army and will shape his political legacy.
