Prediction markets attract capital
- Bernstein forecasted prediction markets could grow to a $1 trillion industry by 2030, drawing investor attention. - An a16z-linked commentary argued prediction markets are entering a 'fast-forward phase' of development and adoption. - The renewed investor focus ties prediction markets to agentic and social product trends, even as regulatory hurdles persist ( ).
Prediction markets are pulling in new capital after Wall Street research and venture investors argued the business could scale far beyond election bets. (cnbc.com) A prediction market lets traders buy contracts tied to a yes-or-no outcome, like a Federal Reserve rate decision or a sports result. Bernstein said on April 14 that annual prediction-market volume could reach about $240 billion in 2026 and $1 trillion by 2030. (cnbc.com) Bernstein said Kalshi and Polymarket handled about $60 billion in volume year to date, more than the $51 billion traded across the sector in all of 2025. The firm said sports now account for more than 60% of trading, but it expects economics, business and political contracts to take a larger share by 2030. (cnbc.com) Andreessen Horowitz published its own case on April 16, saying the market is moving past its election-and-sports image. In a post built around Kalshi’s late-March research conference in New York, the firm pointed to rising activity in entertainment, crypto, politics and culture, and to Wall Street interest in contracts tied to consumer price index data and payrolls. (a16z.com) The capital chase is spreading into distribution. Robinhood said in December that prediction markets had become its fastest-growing product line by revenue, with more than 1 million customers trading 9 billion contracts in the first year after launch. (robinhood.com) Kalshi remains the biggest regulated U.S. platform. CNBC reported on April 15 that Kalshi holds about 90% of the U.S. market, while Polymarket focuses on users outside the United States. (cnbc.com) The regulatory split is still shaping where that capital can go. Polymarket paid a $1.4 million civil penalty to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission in January 2022 for offering event-based contracts without the required registration, while Kalshi operates as a designated contract market under U.S. law. (cftc.gov, cnbc.com) Washington is now pressing on market conduct as volumes rise. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission said on February 25 that two Kalshi-related cases involved misuse of nonpublic information and fraud, including one trader tied to a political candidacy and another tied to a YouTube channel. (cftc.gov) Congress is also paying closer attention. CNBC reported that Kalshi and Polymarket spent nearly $1 million combined on federal lobbying in 2025 as lawmakers raised questions about insider trading and contracts tied to deaths and wars. (cnbc.com) The legal backdrop is still unsettled even for regulated operators. A federal appeals court fight over Kalshi’s election contracts and new state-federal clashes over event contracts have turned prediction markets into both a growth story and a jurisdiction fight. (media.cadc.uscourts.gov, forbes.com) For investors, the bet is that these contracts become a regular way to price uncertainty, not just a novelty around elections or March Madness. For regulators, the question is whether the industry can grow that fast without being treated more like finance, gambling, or both. (a16z.com, cnbc.com, cnbc.com)
