Tariffs Become Operating Reality
- Small and midsize businesses are actively redesigning supply chains in response to ongoing tariff volatility. - A tariff-refund process is underway, with reports citing about $166 billion in refunds after a court ruling found duties unconstitutional. - Firms are treating tariff exposure as a structural planning assumption, complicating logistics, pricing, and inventory strategies ( ).
Tariffs have moved from a policy risk to a day-to-day operating cost for many U.S. small and midsize businesses. Netstock said in a report released April 22 that 97% of small and midsize businesses are now using at least one tariff-mitigation tactic, 82% are passing costs to customers, and about one in three have changed suppliers. The changes are showing up in planning, not just pricing: companies are extending forecasting horizons, diversifying sourcing, and using more analytics tools to manage what executives called “structured volatility.” At the same time, a separate tariff fight is moving from the courts into company cash flow. U.S. Customs and Border Protection opened an online refund system on April 20 for duties the Supreme Court said President Donald Trump imposed without constitutional authority. Customs said more than 330,000 importers paid about $166 billion on more than 53 million shipments under the struck-down tariffs. As of April 14, 56,497 importers had registered for refunds totaling $127 billion, including interest. The Supreme Court ruled on Feb. 20 that Trump had usurped Congress’s tax-setting role when he used the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, a 1977 emergency law, to set broad import taxes in April 2025. A judge at the U.S. Court of International Trade later held that importers were entitled to refunds. Refunds are not arriving all at once. Customs said the first phase covers entries where tariffs were estimated but not finalized, or are still within 80 days of final accounting, and approved claims are expected to take 60 to 90 days to pay. Trade lawyers say the legal process is still unsettled. Davis Wright Tremaine said the trade court ordered refunds with interest on most of the roughly $166 billion in duties, but that order was paused and could still be appealed. Across the wider trade system, tariff instability is already changing how companies rank their risks. Thomson Reuters said 72% of trade professionals in its 2026 global trade survey named U.S. tariff volatility as the most important regulatory change, up from 41% a year earlier. The result is a two-track reality for importers: some are trying to recover old tariff payments through a federal portal, while others are redesigning sourcing, inventory, and pricing as if tariff swings will remain part of normal business.
