Europe jet‑fuel worry

Europe’s summer flight market is bracing for possible jet-fuel shortages after the International Energy Agency warned supply could run critically low within weeks if disruption in the Strait of Hormuz continues. (euronews.com) On April 17, International Air Transport Association Director General Willie Walsh said airlines could start seeing cancellations in Europe “by the end of May” for lack of jet fuel, after the agency’s chief Fatih Birol warned the region had “roughly another six weeks” of supply. (iata.org) (euronews.com) The European Commission has pushed back on the most dire forecasts. On April 17, spokesperson Anna-Kaisa Itkonen said the market was “tight” but that there were “currently no fuel shortages” in the European Union, citing weekly meetings of the oil coordination group with member states and industry. (euronews.com) The squeeze is hitting aviation first because jet fuel is a refined oil product that has to move through a tightly timed chain of refineries, storage tanks, pipelines and airport depots. Euronews reported on April 23 that European Union refineries supply about 70% of the bloc’s jet fuel, with most of the rest normally imported from the Middle East. (euronews.com) That import dependence has been growing for months. In a November 2025 briefing, the International Air Transport Association said Europe’s jet-fuel resilience had weakened as refinery closures increased reliance on imports and exposed the region to geopolitical shocks and logistical bottlenecks. (iata.org) The cost shock is already showing up in fares and schedules. Euronews said Scandinavian Airlines had canceled about 1,000 departures, Lufthansa had cut 20,000 routes, and Air France-KLM had added a €100 surcharge on long-haul tickets as jet-fuel prices doubled after the latest disruption to oil transit. (euronews.com) Airports have been pressing Brussels to prepare for rationing. Euronews reported that Airports Council International Europe warned in a letter dated April 9 that a systemic jet-fuel shortage could become reality for the European Union within three weeks if passage through Hormuz did not resume in a significant and stable way. (euronews.com) Brussels is also trying to separate this immediate supply scare from its longer climate policy. Under ReFuelEU Aviation, fuel suppliers at European Union airports must blend in at least 2% sustainable aviation fuel from 2025, and the rules cover more than 95% of departing air transport from European Union airports. (ec.europa.eu) Those cleaner fuels are blended into regular jet fuel and are meant to cut emissions over years, not replace missing cargoes in a sudden supply crunch. The Commission says the system still depends on coordination among fuel suppliers, airports and airlines across the bloc. (ec.europa.eu) (iata.org) For travelers, the near-term risk is less about planes physically disappearing than about higher fares, thinner schedules and last-minute disruption as airlines and airports manage whatever fuel is available. Europe’s summer timetable now depends on whether oil flows normalize before those six weeks run out. (iata.org) (euronews.com)