China's five‑year pivot
China’s National People’s Congress approved a new five‑year economic plan that prioritises semiconductors, AI and domestic innovation — a clear pivot to “high‑quality development” and technological self‑reliance approved. The plan sets an official GDP growth target of 4.5% — the lowest in decades — as Beijing cites slowing population growth, a shrinking labour force and external shocks sets 4.5% target.
The government’s published outline names the programme the 15th Five‑Year Plan (2026–2030) and sets targets across economic development, innovation, public well‑being, green transition and security. english.www.gov.cn Science and Technology Minister Yin Hejun presented four concrete arrangements — strengthening original innovation, deepening industry‑science integration, coordinating education with talent policy, and raising the super‑deduction for corporate R&D expenses — as implementation priorities. english.www.gov.cn Total national R&D outlays topped about 3.6 trillion yuan in 2024, while basic‑research spending reached roughly 280 billion yuan in 2025, signalling the fiscal scale behind the push. english.www.gov.cn Independent analysts flag explicit military‑civil fusion language and a plan to expand computing infrastructure beyond China into Southeast Asia as operational moves that could blunt export‑control effects. thediplomat.com Institutional investors and sell‑side analysts at firms including Citigroup and Morgan Stanley say they are reallocating toward Chinese AI and semiconductor plays, and domestic chip firms such as Cambricon have publicly endorsed the strategy. bloomberg.com
