Big-bank earnings are the next test

The first real read on the U.S. economy this earnings season is not a factory or a retailer. It is three banks that touch almost every part of Wall Street at once: Goldman Sachs reports on April 13, JPMorgan Chase on April 14, and Morgan Stanley on April 15. (goldmansachs.com, jpmorganchase.com, businesswire.com) Investors are watching one question inside those reports: can trading desks and deal advisers make enough money to cover for slower plain-vanilla banking. That split matters because lending income usually looks steady, while trading and underwriting jump when markets swing or chief executives start buying companies again. (jpmorganchase.com, goldmansachs.com, tradingview.com) JPMorgan is the broadest test because it is both a giant Main Street bank and a giant markets business. In its 2025 annual report, the bank said it generated $185.6 billion of managed revenue and $57.0 billion of net income, so even small changes in lending margins or trading volumes show up fast. (jpmorganchase.com) Goldman Sachs is the cleaner read on Wall Street activity because its strategy is centered on Global Banking and Markets and Asset and Wealth Management. Goldman said in its 2025 annual report that firmwide net revenue rose 9 percent to $58.3 billion, and it highlighted strong client flows in fixed income, currencies and commodities trading and in equities. (goldmansachs.com) Morgan Stanley sits in between those two models. Its investor materials describe a firm built around investment banking, securities trading, wealth management and investment management, which means its numbers show whether rich clients kept assets parked while corporate clients came back for stock sales, bond sales and mergers. (businesswire.com, tradingview.com) The backdrop is awkward for traditional banking. On March 18, 2026, the Federal Reserve kept its target range for the federal funds rate at 3.5 percent to 3.75 percent, which helps explain why investors are asking whether net interest income has flattened after the easy gains from higher rates. (federalreserve.gov) Net interest income is the spread business. A bank pays one rate on deposits, charges a higher rate on loans, and keeps the gap, like a wholesaler living on the difference between buying and selling prices. (jpmorganchase.com, markets.financialcontent.com) That is why trading revenue has become the swing factor for this quarter. When bond markets, stock markets and currencies move sharply, clients hedge, reposition and borrow more, and banks collect fees and spreads from being the middleman. (goldmansachs.com, news.futunn.com) Underwriting is the second swing factor. If companies feel confident enough to sell new bonds, float new shares or restart merger plans, banks like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley get paid advisory and issuance fees that can lift results even when consumer lending is dull. (goldmansachs.com, tradingview.com, markets.financialcontent.com) The catch is that strong trading can be canceled out by higher costs. Preview notes going into JPMorgan’s April 14 report pointed to expense pressure alongside questions about net interest income and geopolitical risk tied to the Middle East, which means investors will care as much about management guidance as about the headline profit number. (news.futunn.com, jpmorganchase.com) If these three banks show that trading desks stayed busy and deal pipelines reopened, the market gets evidence that Wall Street activity is still outrunning the softer parts of the economy. If they show flat lending income, rising costs and cautious forecasts, bank earnings stop being a cushion and start looking like an early warning. (forbes.com, zacks.com, news.futunn.com)