Dining trends: staycations boost local F&B

Americans are still going out to eat, but they are treating more of those meals like planned occasions instead of routine spending. (opentable.com) (mckinsey.com) OpenTable said dining was up 8% year over year in 2025, and its survey found Americans expect to dine out 10 times a month on average in 2026. More than half, 55%, said they plan to spend even more on restaurants next year. (opentable.com) That demand is getting choosier. OpenTable found 61% of Americans say dining out in 2026 will feel more like a special occasion than an everyday occurrence, while happy-hour dining from 4:00 p.m. to 4:59 p.m. rose 13% year over year. (opentable.com) McKinsey said the pressure is showing up in household budgets. Its January 8, 2026 analysis said food away from home rose about 6% from January 2024 to September 2025, while food at home rose about 3% over the same period. (mckinsey.com) That gap is pushing consumers to split their food spending across channels instead of giving restaurants every occasion. McKinsey said older and lower-income diners pulled back most across quick-service, sit-down, and delivery, while millennials with higher incomes were least likely to cut restaurant spending. (mckinsey.com) The convenience channel is taking some of the everyday spend. The National Association of Convenience Stores said foodservice made up 27.7% of in-store sales and 38.6% of in-store gross margin dollars at U.S. convenience stores in 2024. (convenience.org) Prepared food is doing most of that work. NACS said prepared food accounted for 72.6% of convenience-store foodservice sales in 2024, and total in-store sales still reached a record $335.5 billion even as fuel revenue fell 5.7%. (convenience.org) Restaurants, meanwhile, are trying to hold onto the occasions convenience stores cannot easily replace: group dinners, date nights, and experience-led visits. OpenTable said group dining rose 11% year over year, and millennials expect to dine out 14 times a month on average in 2026. (opentable.com) Operators are planning around that split market. The National Restaurant Association said U.S. restaurant sales are projected to reach $1.55 trillion in 2026, but it also warned that uneven traffic, lingering inflation, and tighter household budgets will keep pressure on revenue and profitability. (restaurant.org) The result is a two-track dining economy: experience when people go out, convenience when they stay close to home or need speed. The winning operators are increasingly building for both. (opentable.com) (restaurant.org)