Meta set to overtake Google ads

Meta is on track to pass Google in global digital advertising revenue by the end of 2026, according to a new Emarketer forecast. (emarketer.com) Emarketer said Meta will reach $243.46 billion in net worldwide ad revenue in 2026, just ahead of Google at $239.54 billion. The firm said Meta is also set to overtake Google in the United States, ending Google’s long run at the top of digital ads. (emarketer.com) Reuters reported the shift would mark the first time Google loses the lead in the global digital ad market. The report tied Meta’s gains to faster growth in social advertising as marketers keep spending on Instagram and Facebook. (reuters.com) Meta enters that forecast with momentum in its own filings. The company reported $200.97 billion in 2025 revenue, up 22% from 2024, with ad impressions across its Family of Apps up 12% and average price per ad up 9%. (investor.atmeta.com) Alphabet is still growing, but its ad business is expanding more slowly. Alphabet said Google Services revenue rose 14% to $95.9 billion in the fourth quarter of 2025, while YouTube ads grew 9% and Search and other grew 17%. (s206.q4cdn.com) Google is also facing a legal squeeze on the same ad business. Bloomberg reported on April 13 that advertisers are organizing mass arbitration claims seeking billions of dollars after courts found Google’s search and ad-technology businesses were illegal monopolies. (bloomberg.com) Mass arbitration means many companies file similar private claims at once instead of one big class action. Bloomberg said lawyer Ashley Keller had already signed up a “significant number” of advertisers, with the first claims expected to be filed this week. (bloomberg.com) Those claims build on two major antitrust losses. On August 5, 2024, Judge Amit Mehta ruled that Google illegally maintained monopolies in general search and search text advertising, and on April 17, 2025, Judge Leonie Brinkema ruled that Google illegally monopolized publisher ad servers and ad exchanges. (klobuchar.senate.gov, (justice.gov)) Google has said it disagrees with the rulings and plans to appeal. In the ad-tech case, the Department of Justice said the court found Google used acquisitions and auction manipulation to subvert competition for more than 15 years. (justice.gov)) The advertising market is also concentrating around a few giant platforms. Reuters, citing Emarketer, said Google, Meta and Amazon are expected to capture 62.3% of global digital ad spending in 2026. (reuters.com) If the forecast holds, 2026 would be the year Meta takes the top ad slot while Google fights to protect the business in court. Both companies still generate tens of billions from advertising each quarter, but the lead may no longer belong to Google. (emarketer.com, (bloomberg.com))