Alliances shift over arms
Recent commentary shows countries like Poland and the Philippines seeking Japanese arms as Ukraine and Iran draw down available Western stockpiles, while China and Russia deepen backing for Iran and the UK continues support for Ukraine. ( ).
Governments from Warsaw to Manila are looking harder at Japanese weapons as wars in Ukraine and Iran soak up U.S. and European supply. (reuters.com) Reuters reported on April 15 that Japan’s ruling party approved another easing of export rules and officials expect the government to adopt the changes later this month. The move would widen what Japanese companies can sell abroad as Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi tries to build up a domestic defense industry. (reuters.com) Japan first replaced its old blanket arms-export ban in April 2014 with the Three Principles on Transfer of Defense Equipment and Technology, then revised those rules again on December 22, 2023. Those revisions already opened the door to more finished products tied to international joint programs. (mofa.go.jp) (mod.go.jp) The Philippines is already a live example of that shift. Japan’s Defense Ministry said the first air-surveillance radar was delivered to the Philippine Air Force in October 2023, and Mitsubishi Electric said a second, mobile radar followed in March 2024 under a 2020 contract. (mod.go.jp) (mitsubishielectric.com) Poland is moving closer too. In Tokyo on April 15, Takaichi and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk agreed to elevate ties to a strategic partnership and said they would deepen cooperation in defense equipment and technology. (mofa.go.jp) The timing is tied to shortages as much as strategy. Reuters said the wars in Ukraine and Iran are straining U.S. weapons supplies, pushing allies to look for other industrial bases that can still produce missiles, radars, and other systems. (reuters.com) Britain is still feeding the Ukraine pipeline. The U.K. government said on April 15 that it will send at least 120,000 drones to Ukraine in 2026, with deliveries already under way, backed by its wider £3 billion military support commitment for this year. (gov.uk) London says that support is part of a longer pledge. A U.K. factsheet published last month says Britain has committed £10.8 billion in military support since Russia’s full-scale invasion and plans to sustain £3 billion a year in military aid until 2030-31. (gov.uk) China and Russia are moving in the opposite direction around Iran, but not in the same way. The Washington Institute said this week that both governments have publicly defended Tehran since the U.S.-Israel campaign began in February 2026, while analysts and Reuters-linked reporting have described Moscow offering stronger backing and Beijing sticking closer to diplomatic cover. (washingtoninstitute.org) (reuters.com) What is shifting is not a single alliance map but the arms market underneath it. Japan is loosening rules, Britain is pouring drones into Ukraine, and countries that once bought almost automatically from the United States are testing how much security they can source elsewhere. (mod.go.jp) (gov.uk) (reuters.com)
