Climate change could erase $1.47 trillion

First Street said in a February 3, 2025 report that climate-related risks could reduce U.S. residential property values by $1.47 trillion by 2055, as higher insurance costs and climate-driven migration reshape local housing markets. The climate-risk research group said the estimate came from its 12th National Report, “Property Prices in Peril,” which modeled property values, insurance costs and population shifts over the next 30 years. Reuters-backed outlet Context and CBS News later reported the findings, and The Times of India cited them again on August 5, 2026. The report does not say every market falls in the same way. First Street said some “climate-resilient” neighborhoods could gain about $244 billion in value even as the broader market loses ground, leaving a net aggregate potential loss of $1.23 trillion by 2055. That split is central to the forecast: the model projects losses in higher-risk areas and gains in places expected to attract households leaving hotter, flood-prone or smoke-exposed regions. (firststreet.org) ### Where does the $1.47 trillion figure come from? First Street said the $1.47 trillion figure reflects projected losses in property values relative to current value across more than 70,000 neighborhoods by 2055. Context reported that 84% of U.S. Census tracts may see some form of negative property-value impact from climate risk under the study’s methodology. Jeremy Porter, First Street’s head of climate implications research, said the group used peer-reviewed methods and macroeconomic modeling to connect climate exposure, insurance costs, migration and housing demand. (cbsnews.com) Porter said climate change is “a measurable force reshaping real estate markets and regional economies across the United States.” (context.news) ### Why do insurance costs matter so much in this forecast? By 2055, homeowners’ insurance premiums are projected to rise 29.4% nationwide on average, according to First Street. The group said states including Texas, California and Florida are likely to face the steepest increases, while CBS reported some cities could see much larger jumps over time, including more than a fourfold increase in Miami and a tripling in Jacksonville, Tampa and New Orleans. (firststreet.org) Porter said insurance is not a side issue in the model. He said rising premiums directly affect affordability and quality of life, which in turn feeds back into housing demand and pricing. Context reported that insurance pressure and environmental risk are the two main channels through which the report expects climate change to affect home values. ### Which places are projected to lose the most? (firststreet.org) California, Florida and Texas feature prominently in the report’s risk map. CBS said some counties in those three states could see net property-value declines of 10% to 40% by 2055, while First Street said the Sun Belt states face some of the steepest insurance increases. Context said the exposure is not limited to wildfire zones in the West or hurricane-prone parts of the Southeast. (context.news) It reported that some counties in New Jersey and along the East Coast also rank among areas at risk of “climate abandonment,” a term used in the report for places expected to lose residents because of worsening climate pressures. ### How big is the migration shift in the report? (cbsnews.com) First Street projected that 55 million Americans could relocate within the United States over the next 30 years because of climate-related pressures including extreme heat, flooding and wildfire smoke. The group said states such as North Dakota and Montana could gain population because they are modeled as relatively more climate-resilient. (context.news) CBS reported the migration could begin at scale immediately, citing the study’s estimate that more than 5 million Americans would leave climate-affected areas in 2025 alone. That population movement is one reason the report projects widening gaps between stronger and weaker housing markets rather than a uniform national decline. ### What should readers watch next in the underlying research? (firststreet.org) First Street has already published the findings in its 12th National Report, and the company’s press materials point readers to localized projections on insurance, migration and property values. Context said the report also flags consequences for local tax bases, with vulnerable areas facing weaker property-tax revenue while receiving areas must absorb new demand. (firststreet.org) (cbsnews.com)