Fed holds rates
The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at its March meeting and raised its 2026 inflation outlook to 2.7% — officials said the Iran-driven oil shock clouds the outlook and leaves policy options open. (economictimes.indiatimes.com) Markets pushed expectations for the next rate cut out to December and fund managers raised cash allocations as geopolitical risk became the top tail risk for investors. (cnbc.com) (tradingview.com)
The FOMC’s updated “dot plot” shows the median participant still penciling in a single quarter-point reduction in 2026 and another in 2027, with a wide dispersion of views among officials. (bloomberg.com) Policymakers raised their 2026 growth projection to a median 2.4% while leaving the year‑end unemployment forecast at 4.4% in the Summary of Economic Projections released with the meeting. (federalreserve.gov) Chair Jerome Powell noted total PCE inflation rose 2.8% over the 12 months ending in February and core PCE was 3.0%, and said near‑term inflation expectations have increased—likely tied to recent oil‑price moves from Middle East supply disruptions. (federalreserve.gov) The FOMC vote was 11–1, with Governor Stephen Miran dissenting in favor of an immediate quarter‑point cut, while most other officials opted to hold and reassess as data evolve. (cnbc.com) Market pricing shifted: fed‑funds futures are implying about a 3.43% policy rate by end‑2026, a signal that traders have pushed back the most likely timing for the next cut toward late‑year meetings. (cnbc.com) Bank of America’s March Global Fund Manager Survey found average cash allocations jumped to 4.3% from 3.4%—the largest monthly increase since March 2020—and ranked geopolitical conflict and higher inflation among the top tail risks for investors. (tradingview.com)
