Europe's jet‑fuel crunch

Europe’s jet-fuel crunch is turning a summer holiday problem into a fuel-supply story. Jet fuel prices in Europe have jumped about 95% since February 28, 2026, and airlines are already warning that higher fares, fuel surcharges, and route cuts are becoming more likely as the peak travel season approaches. (euronews.com(euronews.com)) The pressure starts far from Europe’s airports. The Strait of Hormuz, the narrow shipping lane between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, handles about 20% of global crude oil exports, and the conflict involving Iran has sharply disrupted traffic through that route since late February. (euronews.com(euronews.com))) Jet fuel is one of the products getting squeezed first because aviation runs on a tightly timed chain of refinery output, tanker shipping, storage, and airport delivery. When one of the world’s main energy chokepoints slows down, Europe does not just pay more for fuel later; airports can start worrying about physical shortages within weeks. (euronews.com(euronews.com))) The market reaction has been fast. S&P Global Platts reported on April 2 that the Northwest Europe jet fuel cargo price rose to $1,842.50 per metric ton, a record high, after another sharp daily jump tied to fears of a wider Middle East war. (spglobal.com(spglobal.com))) That spike landed on top of an aviation system that was already stretched. EUROCONTROL, the network manager for European air traffic, said average jet fuel prices closed at $4.73 per gallon on March 27, 2026, which was 4% higher than two weeks earlier and twice as high as at the beginning of the year. (eurocontrol.int(eurocontrol.int)) EUROCONTROL’s latest weekly snapshot also showed a busy system with thinner margins for disruption. In the week of March 23 to March 29, Europe averaged 27,784 daily flights, while en-route air traffic flow management delays rose 54% from the previous week to 16,982 minutes per day. (eurocontrol.int(eurocontrol.int)) Those delays were not caused only by fuel. EUROCONTROL said 73% of en-route delays in that week came from air traffic control capacity and staffing problems, especially in Spain and France, which means fuel stress is hitting a network that is already vulnerable to staffing gaps, weather, and congestion. (eurocontrol.int(eurocontrol.int)) The supply side now looks even tighter because Europe has been living off buffers. Euronews reported that the International Energy Agency released 400 million barrels of oil on March 11, and analysts told the outlet that the last jet-fuel cargoes that cleared Hormuz before the closure are expected to reach European ports around April 10. (euronews.com(euronews.com))) After those cargoes arrive, the question changes from price to availability. Analysts quoted by Euronews said Europe may not face an immediate systemwide shortage, but physical supply could become much more uncertain in April and May unless the strait reopens or replacement supply routes are secured. (euronews.com(euronews.com))) Some airlines are already acting as if the squeeze is real. Euronews reported that Scandinavian Airlines, usually known as SAS, said it would cancel at least 1,000 flights in April, showing how quickly a fuel shock can turn into fewer seats on sale. (euronews.com(euronews.com))) The latest disruption tallies show what that feels like on the ground. A Europe-wide snapshot published on April 7 counted 2,497 delayed flights and 152 cancellations across key markets including Denmark, the Netherlands, and the United Kingdom, with major carriers such as easyJet, KLM, and Lufthansa affected at large hubs. (thetraveler.org(thetraveler.org)) For passengers, the math is simple even if the supply chain is not. Fuel is usually one of an airline’s biggest operating costs, so when jet fuel nearly doubles in a little over a month, airlines can respond by raising fares, adding surcharges, trimming marginal routes, or reducing frequency on less profitable services. (euronews.com(euronews.com)); (spglobal.com(spglobal.com))) Not every country in Europe is equally exposed. Analysts told Euronews that markets with stronger domestic refining capacity, including Germany, Italy, Spain, and the Netherlands, may be better positioned to cushion the shock than places that depend more heavily on imported jet fuel. (euronews.com(euronews.com))) There is one more layer to the problem: Europe’s import dependence. According to Kpler analyst George Shaw, quoted by Euronews, at least 42% of total seaborne jet-fuel imports into the European Union and the United Kingdom normally pass through the Strait of Hormuz, so this is not a small detour issue but a major supply-route problem. (euronews.com(euronews.com))) That is why summer travel in Europe now looks riskier even before the busiest weeks arrive. If fuel remains expensive and hard to source through late April, travelers should expect earlier sellouts, fewer backup options after cancellations, and a wider gap between cheap advance fares and expensive last-minute tickets. (euronews.com(euronews.com)); (eurocontrol.int(eurocontrol.int))) The practical advice follows directly from the way the disruption is unfolding. Booking earlier, choosing direct flights over tight connections, and paying extra for refundable or flexible tickets may cost more upfront, but those choices reduce the chance that one fuel-related cancellation or one congested hub turns a summer trip into a multi-day scramble. (euronews.com(euronews.com)); (thetraveler.org(