TSMC forecasts $1.5T chip market

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. told investors on May 14 that it expects the global semiconductor market to exceed $1.5 trillion by 2030, raising its previous forecast of $1 trillion. The projection was included in presentation materials for the company’s technology symposium in Hsinchu, Taiwan, and was reported by Reuters. (money.usnews.com) TSMC said artificial intelligence and high-performance computing would account for 55% of that market, ahead of smartphones at 20% and automotive applications at 10%. The company also said it was expanding capacity faster in 2025 and 2026 and planned nine phases of wafer fab and advanced-packaging facilities in 2026. (pr.tsmc.com) ### How big is the number TSMC just put on the table? TSMC’s new forecast implies a semiconductor market more than 50% larger than the company’s prior $1 trillion estimate for 2030. Reuters reported that the revised outlook was disclosed ahead of the Hsinchu symposium on May 14. The company’s materials said AI and high-performance computing would be the largest driver of that growth. The 55% share attached to AI and high-performance computing translates to roughly $825 billion of the projected 2030 market. TSMC’s presentation, as reflected in Reuters reporting and follow-on coverage, placed smartphones second at 20% and automotive third at 10%. (money.usnews.com) ### Why is TSMC talking about packaging as much as wafer fabs? TSMC said it plans nine phases of wafer fabs and advanced-packaging facilities in 2026, linking factory construction directly to the AI build-out. Reuters reported that the company has been expanding capacity at a faster pace in 2025 and 2026 as demand for AI chips rises. (money.usnews.com) Advanced packaging has become a central part of that message because AI processors need more than leading-edge wafers. TSMC said at its North America Technology Symposium on April 22 in Santa Clara that it was continuing to expand its 3DFabric and CoWoS packaging technologies to support AI demand for more computing power and memory in a single package. (moneycontrol.com) ### What does this say about demand for AI chips right now? TSMC’s own product announcements have been framed around what Chief Executive C.C. Wei called “insatiable customer demand” for next-generation AI, high-performance computing and mobile applications. In its April 23 release on the A13 process, the company tied new node development to rising computational requirements and said A13 was scheduled to enter production in 2029. (moneycontrol.com) Reuters and other reports on the May 14 materials said TSMC expects demand for AI accelerator wafers to rise sharply through 2026. That matters because the company is not only forecasting end-market revenue growth but also signaling near-term pressure on the manufacturing and packaging steps needed to ship AI systems. (pr.tsmc.com) ### Which parts of the business are getting the biggest push? AI and high-performance computing are getting the clearest emphasis in TSMC’s public roadmap. The company’s symposium materials and product releases repeatedly describe advanced nodes such as A13, A14 and A12 as aimed at AI and HPC workloads, while packaging technologies are being expanded to integrate more silicon and memory into each package. (pr.tsmc.com) TSMC’s event materials show the 2026 symposium series under the theme “Expanding AI with Leadership Silicon.” That language has appeared across its symposium site and highlights page as the company uses customer events to lay out both its technology roadmap and its demand assumptions. (money.usnews.com) ### What should readers watch next? TSMC’s public events calendar shows the company held its Taiwan Technology Symposium in Hsinchu on May 14, the same day Reuters reported the updated market forecast. The next listed 2026 symposium stops are Amsterdam on May 28, Shanghai on June 25 and Yokohama on July 3. A later checkpoint will come from TSMC’s production milestones. (pr.tsmc.com) The company said A13 and A12 are both scheduled to enter production in 2029, while N2U is scheduled for production in 2028, giving investors and customers specific dates against which to measure whether the company’s AI-driven capacity build matches its market forecast. (pr.tsmc.com) (tsmc.com)