Finland 41% to win Eurovision

Finland entered the final hours before the Eurovision Song Contest 2026 Grand Final as the bookmakers’ clear favorite, according to odds trackers published on Saturday. Aussievision said on May 16 that Finland led European betting markets with a 41% implied chance of winning. Eurovisionworld’s live odds page showed Finland on 41%, with Australia second on 22%, Greece on 7% and Bulgaria and Israel on 6% each. ESCToday, in a separate May 16 market update, said Bulgaria had moved into the leading contenders group hours before the final. The figures matter because they show where betting markets stood on the day of the final, not who had already won. Eurovision betting odds are widely followed during contest week as a real-time gauge of bookmaker sentiment, and several Eurovision-focused outlets were updating those numbers throughout Saturday. The Grand Final was due to take place in Vienna later on May 16. ### Which countries were at the top of the market on May 16? Eurovisionworld’s May 16 odds table put Finland first on 41% and Australia second on 22%. The same table listed Greece on 7%, Bulgaria on 6%, Israel on 6% and Romania on 5%, with Denmark on 3%, Italy on 2% and France and Malta on 1%. The page said the numbers were verified in the afternoon Central European Summer Time. (aussievision.net) Aussievision’s May 16 report matched Finland’s 41% figure and also described Finland as the favorite. Its article said the odds came from European markets and pointed readers to Eurovisionworld for the underlying data. Aussievision’s write-up also said Australia and Greece were the biggest challengers, while Bulgaria was a notable mover. (eurovisionworld.com) ### Why do some rankings differ from the numbers in the prompt? Aussievision’s published table did not match the ranking in the prompt. The article available on May 16 listed Finland first at 41%, Australia second at 22%, Greece third at 7%, Israel fourth at 6%, Romania fifth at 5% and Bulgaria at 3% in one line of text, before describing Bulgaria as a “big mover.” It did not show Bulgaria at 16%, Austria at 14% or France at 8%. (aussievision.net) Eurovisionworld’s live odds page also did not support those higher figures for Bulgaria, Austria or France. Its table showed Austria below the top group at less than 1%, and France at 1%, at the time the page was captured. Because Aussievision cited Eurovisionworld as its source, the live odds page is the clearest published reference for the market snapshot available on Saturday afternoon. (aussievision.net) ### What did ESCToday say about Bulgaria’s late move? ESCToday reported at 2:52 p.m. on May 16 that Bulgaria had joined the leading contenders before the final. Its article said Finland remained the clear favorite on 41.5%, Australia held second on 22.4%, Greece was on 6.5%, and Bulgaria had climbed to 5.8%, level with Israel. (aussievision.net) The same ESCToday update said bookmakers were “continuing to reshape the market in real time” and described Bulgaria as the latest surprise mover inside the top five. It attributed its numbers to consensus data aggregated from 25 international bookmakers. ### What are these odds actually measuring? (esctoday.com) Bookmaker odds measure market-implied probabilities, not contest results. Eurovisionworld’s page presented each country with a percentage chance of winning alongside quoted prices from multiple bookmakers, including Bet365, Unibet, Betano and William Hill. The percentages can move during rehearsals, after semi-finals and in the hours before the live final. (esctoday.com) Aussievision said its May 16 article was based on European markets, while ESCToday said its update used consensus data from 25 bookmakers. Those descriptions indicate the figures were snapshots of betting sentiment on Saturday, rather than official Eurovision voting data. ### What happens next on Saturday night? (eurovisionworld.com) The Eurovision Song Contest 2026 Grand Final was set for May 16 in Vienna, according to ESCToday’s Saturday update. Eurovisionworld’s odds page showed bookmakers still revising prices in the afternoon, with verification times listed in CEST, indicating the market was continuing to move before the live show. (esctoday.com) (aussievision.net)