Tariff Pressure on Lumber

Lumber is back in the tariff crossfire, with Canadian softwood shipments facing fresh U.S. trade pressure even as Washington posted a lower preliminary duty rate this month. (federalregister.gov) (cbc.ca) The U.S. Department of Commerce said on April 14 that its preliminary 2024 review found countervailable subsidies for Canadian softwood producers and exporters, continuing a case that has been in place since 2018. The notice covers imports from January 1, 2024, through December 31, 2024, and invites comments before a final decision later this year. (federalregister.gov) CBC reported on April 10 that the new preliminary combined tariff estimate was just under 25%, down from a current duty rate of more than 35%. Industry groups in British Columbia said the change still leaves uncertainty because the final rate is not expected until August. (cbc.ca) That uncertainty sits on top of a broader Trump trade agenda that already targets Canadian steel, aluminum and autos. CBC’s March 18 tariff guide said many Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement goods remain exempt, but softwood lumber is one of the sectors still facing targeted U.S. duties. (cbc.ca) The White House widened the fight on March 1, 2025, when President Donald Trump ordered a Section 232 national-security investigation into timber, lumber and derivative wood products. That process gave Washington a separate track for possible import restrictions beyond the long-running anti-dumping and countervailing duty case. (whitehouse.gov) (federalregister.gov) For U.S. builders, the issue is supply as much as price. The National Association of Home Builders said the United States imports roughly 30% of the softwood lumber it uses, and that Canada supplied just over 11.8 billion board feet in 2024. (nahb.org 1) (nahb.org 2) The same builders’ group said softwood lumber prices had risen 12.7% since the end of 2024 as tariff threats fed volatility. NAHB has argued that higher duties raise construction and renovation costs in a housing market already strained by high borrowing costs. (nahb.org 1) (nahb.org 2) Canadian officials and industry groups say the duties punish producers and workers while raising costs for U.S. households. British Columbia Forests Minister Ravi Parmar said the levies are “unwarranted and unfair,” and the Independent Wood Processors Association said companies that do not hold timber tenures are being swept into the dispute anyway. (cbc.ca) U.S. officials frame the case differently, arguing that Canadian producers benefit from provincial timber systems that underprice wood harvested from Crown land. That claim has anchored the softwood lumber fight for decades, and Commerce’s April notice shows Washington is still pursuing it through annual reviews. (cbc.ca) (federalregister.gov) For homeowners and remodelers, the practical question is timing: a market that depends on Canadian wood is still waiting on an August tariff decision, while the larger U.S. lumber investigation remains part of the trade backdrop. Until that clears, lumber buyers are pricing projects in a market where policy can move costs before a single board is delivered. (cbc.ca) (whitehouse.gov)